Florida Atlantic @ South Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at South Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F7 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Florida Atlantic

3-3 · Power #108

final

Final

South Florida

5-1 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

USF -20.5

✓ USF W

Total

72.5

▼ Under · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

FAU 21–42 USF

✓ USF (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -22.5

CloseUSF -20.5

Total74.5 → 72.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSF -22.5

2 → FAU

CloseUSF -20.5

2 pts toward Florida Atlantic

Total

Open74.5

▼ 2

Close72.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USF -22.5 · closed USF -20.5 · moved 2 toward FAUmodel USF -23.5

model USF -23.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 48% (89 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (173 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -22.5

CloseUSF -20.5

Total74.5 → 72.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USF as a 20.5-point home favorite against FAU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: USF won 48–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 61 points stayed under 72.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.1 against an average line of 19.4; 64.1 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UCLA vs ARIZ 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-20	28–34	L	U77.5
Close	WASH vs ARIZ 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-14.5	49–39	L	O71.5
Close	WSU vs USU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total	-20.5	49–28	W	O68.5
Close	UTAH vs ARIZ 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-17.75	45–20	W	U67.75
Close	BOIS vs NEV 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-23.5	28–21	L	U61.5
Close	UTSA vs LT 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest	-17	51–7	W	U68.75
Close	TULN vs UNT 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-20	35–28	L	U63.5
Loose	USC vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & rest	-21	43–41	L	O69.5
Loose	WAKE vs ARMY 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-16	45–10	W	U65.5
Loose	MISS vs VAN 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & season form	-24	33–7	W	U63

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FAU WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-2	1-3
USF WLWLW	4-2	67%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: FAU away, as underdog; USF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FAU OOOUO	4-2	67%	3-3
USF UOOOO	4-2	67%	5-1

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 41% of games with totals 68.5–76.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FAU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
USF	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

FAU 2–5 USF USF leads · 7 games since 2002 · USF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 1 2024	South Florida 44 @ Florida Atlantic 21	USF -1.5	USF W
Oct 14 2023	Florida Atlantic 56 @ South Florida 14	USF -2.5	FAU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FAU−10.0 →−10.6▼ 0.6#108

USF−3.9 →+8.4▲ 12.3#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

FAU

Longer bar = better

USF

#77

Offense

USF better ▶

#34

#96

Defense

USF better ▶

#46

−1.8 #136

Turnovers

USF better ▶

+1.0 #12

78 plays #2

Pace

◀ FAU faster

71 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FAU has the ball

Advantage: USF defense

	FAU off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #46	24.7 #74	FAU
Yards / play	5.70 #75	5.35 #57	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #100	−0.09 #10	USF
Success rate	42% #87	39% #43	USF

When USF has the ball

Advantage: USF offense

	USF off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	40.7 #12	33.3 #128	USF
Yards / play	6.64 #25	5.57 #79	USF
PPA / play	+0.18 #47	+0.14 #89	USF
Success rate	45% #50	43% #87	USF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FAU scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	13.0 #3	9.5 #58	22.5 #11	4.2 #107	6.2 #80	10.3 #104
USF allowed	6.3 #96	6.8 #62	13.2 #75	2.8 #17	8.7 #117	11.5 #67

USF scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	6.7 #58	9.5 #58	16.2 #54	14.3 #1	10.2 #15	24.5 #1
FAU allowed	5.2 #68	9.5 #108	14.7 #95	10.7 #130	8.0 #105	18.7 #131

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.