Pittsburgh @ Syracuse: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Syracuse · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Pittsburgh

4-2 · Power #35

▲ winner

Final

Syracuse

3-3 · Power #92

final

Closing spread

PITT -8.5

✓ PITT W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

PITT 32–24 SYR

✓ PITT (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -11.5

ClosePITT -8.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPITT -11.5

3 → SYR

ClosePITT -8.5

3 pts toward Syracuse

Total

Open56.5

▼ 2

Close54.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PITT -11.5 · closed PITT -8.5 · moved 3 toward SYRmodel PITT -4

model PITT -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 53% (86 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (173 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -11.5

ClosePITT -8.5

Total56.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PITT as an 8.5-point road favorite at SYR, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: PITT won 30–13; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 54.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.5 against an average line of 7.6; 66.1 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ILL @ PUR 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	43–27	W	O54.5
Close	TULN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & total	-6.5	27–13	W	U56
Close	ARK @ MSST 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & team ratings	-7.5	58–25	W	O55
Close	ASU @ ARIZ 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar team ratings	-7.5	49–7	W	O53.5
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & spread	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Close	ARIZ @ COLO 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-8	34–31	L	O55.5
Close	OKST @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & team ratings	-6.5	43–30	W	O57.5
Close	SC @ VAN 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	38–27	W	O49
Close	WSU @ ORST 2024 · Week 13 · close	-11	38–41	L	O56.5
Close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & team ratings	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PITT WLLWW	4-2	67%	1-1	3-1
SYR LWWLW	3-3	50%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: PITT away, as favorite; SYR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT OOOOO	6-0	100%	4-2
SYR UOOUU	3-3	50%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 51% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITT	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
SYR	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

PITT 1–1 SYR Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · PITT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 24 2024	Syracuse 13 @ Pittsburgh 41	PITT -4.5	PITT W
Nov 11 2023	Pittsburgh 13 @ Syracuse 28	PITT -3.5	SYR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT+2.5 →+6.2▲ 3.7#45

SYR+5.9 →0.0▼ 5.9#67

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

PITT

Longer bar = better

SYR

#38

Offense

◀ PITT better

#80

#29

Defense

◀ PITT better

#116

−0.3 #95

Turnovers

◀ PITT better

−0.8 #124

68 plays #49

Pace

SYR faster ▶

76 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: PITT offense

	PITT off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	39.8 #15	29.8 #115	PITT
Yards / play	6.33 #36	6.11 #118	PITT
PPA / play	+0.19 #46	+0.18 #109	PITT
Success rate	44% #56	47% #121	PITT

When SYR has the ball

Advantage: PITT defense

	SYR off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #70	21.5 #54	Even
Yards / play	5.68 #78	4.50 #17	PITT
PPA / play	+0.09 #94	+0.03 #38	PITT
Success rate	43% #78	34% #8	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

PITT scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	9.2 #17	13.0 #9	22.2 #13	8.8 #24	8.8 #36	17.7 #22
SYR allowed	6.7 #103	11.7 #128	18.3 #126	5.2 #71	6.3 #61	11.5 #67

SYR scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	4.5 #100	10.2 #48	14.7 #73	3.8 #115	9.3 #23	13.2 #66
PITT allowed	1.2 #5	9.0 #98	10.2 #39	3.3 #28	6.8 #80	10.2 #45

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.