Washington State @ Virginia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 6:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Virginia

Weather at kickoff67°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Washington State

3-3 · Power #60

final

Final

Virginia

5-1 · Power #32

▲ winner

Closing spread

UVA -16.5

✓ WSU W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

WSU 20–36 UVA

✓ UVA (88%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUVA -16.5

CloseUVA -16.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUVA -16.5

no move

CloseUVA -16.5

No change since the open

Total

Open57.5

▼ 1

Close56.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UVA -16.5 · unchangedmodel UVA -17.5

model UVA -17.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 46% (110 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUVA -16.5

CloseUVA -16.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UVA as a 16.5-point home favorite against WSU, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: UVA won 22–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 56.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 25.5 against an average line of 16.6; 51.5 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNLV vs NEV 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-17.5	38–14	W	U54.5
Very close	UCF vs NAVY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar team ratings & spread	-15.25	14–17	L	U53
Very close	GT vs VT 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-14	35–20	W	U55.5
Very close	JMU vs GAST 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-14.5	38–7	W	U53.5
Very close	WAKE vs BC 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-20	43–15	W	U60
Close	USA vs ULM 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-17	41–34	L	O51
Close	WSU vs HAW 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-18.5	42–10	W	U55.5
Close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Close	KSU vs HOU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & season form	-17.5	41–0	W	U60.5
Close	LIB vs ODU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-13.5	38–10	W	U58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSU WLLWW	3-3	50%	2-1	2-2
UVA LWWWW	5-1	83%	4-0	3-0

Venue/role: WSU away, as underdog; UVA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSU OOOUU	3-3	50%	3-3
UVA OOOOU	5-1	83%	5-1

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 12. 51% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
UVA	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSU−2.0 →−4.3▼ 2.3#82

UVA−1.6 →+7.8▲ 9.4#38

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

WSU

Longer bar = better

UVA

#110

Offense

UVA better ▶

#21

#96

Defense

UVA better ▶

#76

−0.8 #125

Turnovers

UVA better ▶

+0.7 #35

63 plays #112

Pace

UVA faster ▶

77 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSU has the ball

Advantage: UVA defense

	WSU off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #115	23.8 #67	UVA
Yards / play	4.94 #122	5.52 #75	UVA
PPA / play	+0.01 #123	+0.13 #88	UVA
Success rate	42% #81	42% #74	Even

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: UVA offense

	UVA off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	43.0 #8	28.0 #97	UVA
Yards / play	6.35 #35	5.57 #81	UVA
PPA / play	+0.32 #12	+0.13 #82	UVA
Success rate	48% #30	47% #122	UVA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WSU scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	4.5 #99	6.5 #104	11.0 #108	5.7 #78	4.0 #118	9.7 #112
UVA allowed	3.5 #35	8.2 #91	11.7 #63	8.0 #122	3.2 #11	11.2 #60

UVA scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	11.7 #7	14.5 #3	26.2 #3	9.7 #16	4.3 #113	14.0 #54
WSU allowed	6.3 #96	8.0 #89	14.3 #91	5.0 #65	8.7 #118	13.7 #98

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.