Virginia @ North Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at North Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff58°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Virginia

6-1 · Power #32

▲ winner

Final

North Carolina

2-4 · Power #89

final

Closing spread

UVA -12.5

✓ UNC W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

UVA 34–21 UNC

✓ UVA (82%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUVA -9.5

CloseUVA -12.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUVA -9.5

3 → UVA

CloseUVA -12.5

3 pts toward Virginia

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UVA -9.5 · closed UVA -12.5 · moved 3 toward UVAmodel UVA -13.5

model UVA -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 44% (66 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (199 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUVA -9.5

CloseUVA -12.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UVA as a 12.5-point road favorite at UNC, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: UVA won 17–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 51.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 12.8; 60.9 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SMU @ ECU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-11.5	31–10	W	U49
Very close	ARIZ @ ASU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar team ratings & rest	-12.5	59–23	W	O49.25
Very close	WASH @ ASU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & season form	-13.5	38–45	L	O56
Very close	TULN @ USF 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12	45–31	W	O55
Very close	DUKE @ BC 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-12	38–31	L	O47.25
Very close	MIZ @ VAN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	38–21	W	O54.5
Very close	MD @ NU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-14	27–33	L	O48.5
Close	ARIZ @ STAN 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	21–20	L	U60
Close	BOIS @ WYO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	20–17	L	U44.5
Close	AFA @ USU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	27–34	L	O53.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UVA WWWWL	5-2	71%	1-1	3-1
UNC WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: UVA away, as favorite; UNC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UVA OOOUU	5-2	71%	6-1
UNC UUUOU	2-4	33%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UVA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
UNC	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UVA 51–65 UNC (4 tied) UNC leads · 120 games since 1902 · UVA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	North Carolina 41 @ Virginia 14	UVA -3.5	UNC W
Oct 21 2023	Virginia 31 @ North Carolina 27	UNC -24	UVA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UVA−1.6 →+7.2▲ 8.8#40

UNC+2.3 →−7.4▼ 9.7#95

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

UVA

Longer bar = better

UNC

#25

Offense

◀ UVA better

#124

#71

Defense

Even

#76

+0.9 #18

Turnovers

◀ UVA better

−0.3 #101

74 plays #10

Pace

◀ UVA faster

57 plays #137

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UVA has the ball

Advantage: UVA offense

	UVA off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #9	25.0 #76	UVA
Yards / play	6.24 #44	5.23 #48	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #16	+0.19 #113	UVA
Success rate	47% #32	41% #66	UVA

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: UVA defense

	UNC off	UVA def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #124	23.3 #60	UVA
Yards / play	4.74 #128	5.46 #70	UVA
PPA / play	+0.01 #123	+0.12 #80	UVA
Success rate	38% #122	42% #74	UVA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UVA scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UVA scored	11.0 #7	12.4 #15	23.4 #8	8.7 #22	5.4 #94	14.1 #53
UNC allowed	9.8 #130	6.0 #45	15.8 #110	5.8 #85	3.3 #14	9.2 #33

UNC scoring against the UVA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	6.2 #73	3.8 #130	10.0 #117	3.3 #123	5.3 #98	8.7 #122
UVA allowed	4.0 #41	8.4 #93	12.4 #72	7.3 #110	2.7 #5	10.0 #44

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.