SMU @ Wake Forest: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Wake Forest · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

SMU

5-2 · Power #27

final

Final

Wake Forest

4-2 · Power #53

▲ winner

Closing spread

SMU -5.5

✓ WAKE W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 25 pts

Model before kickoff

SMU 29–24 WAKE

✗ SMU (65%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -3.5

CloseSMU -5.5

Total56.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSMU -3.5

2 → SMU

CloseSMU -5.5

2 pts toward SMU

Total

Open56.5

▼ 4

Close52.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SMU -3.5 · closed SMU -5.5 · moved 2 toward SMUmodel SMU -4

model SMU -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 50% (129 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (199 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSMU -3.5

CloseSMU -5.5

Total56.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SMU as a 5.5-point road favorite at WAKE, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: WAKE won 13–12 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 25 points stayed under 52.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 5; 45.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & situation	-6	42–14	W	O53
Close	KU @ UCF 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-4	27–20	W	U53.5
Close	TULN @ MEM 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-4.5	31–21	W	U55
Close	DUKE @ CAL 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	45–21	W	O54.5
Close	UCLA @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	10–27	L	U49.5
Close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Close	LOU @ PITT 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	34–27	W	O53.5
Close	CLEM @ SC 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & total	-7.5	16–7	W	U48.25
Close	TTU @ WVU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & spread	-6	13–20	L	U54.5
Close	JMU @ MRSH 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-5	20–9	W	U49.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SMU LLLWW	2-5	29%	1-2	1-4
WAKE WLWWW	4-2	67%	2-2	2-1

Venue/role: SMU away, as favorite; WAKE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SMU UUUUO	2-5	29%	5-2
WAKE UOOOO	4-2	67%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SMU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
WAKE	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SMU+12.5 →+7.2▼ 5.3#41

WAKE−4.6 →+0.5▲ 5.1#66

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

SMU

Longer bar = better

WAKE

#47

Offense

◀ SMU better

#72

#44

Defense

WAKE better ▶

#16

+0.7 #24

Turnovers

◀ SMU better

0.0 #70

65 plays #94

Pace

Even

64 plays #100

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: WAKE defense

	SMU off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	34.1 #36	20.0 #34	Even
Yards / play	6.31 #36	4.24 #8	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.20 #42	−0.06 #10	WAKE
Success rate	43% #75	34% #10	WAKE

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: SMU defense

	WAKE off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #69	22.6 #52	Even
Yards / play	6.37 #33	5.37 #58	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.14 #67	−0.03 #21	SMU
Success rate	38% #120	40% #45	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SMU scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	6.3 #70	11.7 #24	18.0 #36	5.0 #85	10.1 #16	15.1 #42
WAKE allowed	5.0 #66	2.2 #4	7.2 #11	5.5 #80	6.2 #62	11.7 #71

WAKE scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	10.0 #14	9.7 #55	19.7 #25	6.2 #67	2.2 #134	8.3 #123
SMU allowed	2.4 #19	6.9 #65	9.3 #28	3.3 #26	8.6 #116	11.9 #74

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.