Wake Forest @ Oregon State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Oregon State

Weather at kickoff58°F7 mphgusts 18Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Wake Forest

3-2 · Power #53

▲ winner

Final

Oregon State

0-6 · Power #100

final

Closing spread

WAKE -1.5

✓ WAKE W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

WAKE 27–25 ORST

✓ WAKE (54%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWAKE -2.5

CloseWAKE -1.5

Total52.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWAKE -2.5

1 → ORST

CloseWAKE -1.5

1 pt toward Oregon State

Total

Open52.5

▼ 5

Close47.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WAKE -2.5 · closed WAKE -1.5 · moved 1 toward ORSTmodel WAKE -1.5 matches the line

model WAKE -1.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 53%, covered 50% (131 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (227 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWAKE -2.5

CloseWAKE -1.5

Total52.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WAKE as a 1.5-point road favorite at ORST, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WAKE won 39–14; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9 against an average line of 2.5; 53.4 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB @ BUFF 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.75	55–27	W	O54
Close	BGSU @ WMU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	34–10	W	U51.5
Close	WVU @ HOU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	39–41	L	O49.5
Close	RICE @ CLT 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-1	28–7	W	U46.5
Close	NCSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-2	26–6	W	U43
Close	ORST @ STAN 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	28–27	L	O53.25
Close	ORST @ NEV 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	37–42	L	O47
Close	SYR @ NCSU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-1	24–17	W	U51.5
Close	NIU @ WMU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-0.5	24–21	W	U49
Close	UAB @ FAU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.75	17–24	L	U45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE LWLWW	3-2	60%	1-0	1-1
ORST LLWWL	2-4	33%	1-2	2-3

Venue/role: WAKE away, as favorite; ORST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE UUOOO	3-2	60%	3-2
ORST OUUOU	3-3	50%	0-6

Went over in Q4. Of 450 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
ORST	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE−4.6 →−2.2▲ 2.4#74

ORST−5.2 →−7.5▼ 2.3#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

WAKE

Longer bar = better

ORST

#86

Offense

◀ WAKE better

#102

#25

Defense

◀ WAKE better

#111

−0.4 #97

Turnovers

◀ WAKE better

−1.0 #126

66 plays #71

Pace

ORST faster ▶

69 plays #42

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: WAKE offense

	WAKE off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #81	35.0 #128	WAKE
Yards / play	6.00 #56	6.47 #126	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.12 #82	+0.24 #125	WAKE
Success rate	38% #124	41% #64	ORST

When ORST has the ball

Advantage: WAKE defense

	ORST off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #123	21.2 #52	WAKE
Yards / play	5.15 #110	4.32 #16	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.05 #108	−0.06 #18	WAKE
Success rate	44% #66	35% #14	WAKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	9.0 #23	9.6 #56	18.6 #37	6.0 #68	1.2 #135	7.2 #127
ORST allowed	9.8 #130	9.0 #101	18.8 #128	6.2 #93	9.5 #131	15.7 #126

ORST scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	3.3 #122	5.5 #113	8.8 #121	3.7 #116	5.8 #88	9.5 #113
WAKE allowed	6.0 #91	2.6 #8	8.6 #31	6.6 #104	4.6 #32	11.2 #68

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.