NC State @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff64°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

NC State

4-2 · Power #44

final

Final

Notre Dame

3-2 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -24.5

✓ ND W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

NCSU 17–41 ND

✓ ND (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -22.5

CloseND -24.5

Total62.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -22.5

2 → ND

CloseND -24.5

2 pts toward Notre Dame

Total

Open62.5

▼ 3

Close59.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -22.5 · closed ND -24.5 · moved 2 toward NDmodel ND -22.5

model ND -22.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 23.5–25.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 54% (70 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (186 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -22.5

CloseND -24.5

Total62.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 24.5-point home favorite against NCSU, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 36–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 59.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 25.7 against an average line of 23.3; 53.1 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ORE vs ILL 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-22.5	38–9	W	U54
Close	CLEM vs STAN 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-24	40–14	W	U58
Close	ORE vs WSU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-19.5	38–24	L	O60.5
Close	USC vs ASU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-24.5	42–25	L	O61
Close	PSU vs CMU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-28	33–14	L	U61.5
Close	ALA vs MSST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-21.25	30–6	W	U61.5
Close	PSU vs MD 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-26	44–7	W	O50.5
Close	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-25	49–17	W	O52.5
Close	ORE vs MD 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-24	39–18	L	U58
Close	FSU vs SYR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	41–3	W	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCSU WWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	0-1
ND LLWWL	2-3	40%	1-2	2-3

Venue/role: NCSU away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU OOOUO	4-2	67%	4-2
ND OOOOU	4-1	80%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 12. 47% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
ND	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NCSU 2–3 ND ND leads · 5 games since 2002 · ND has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 9 2023	Notre Dame 45 @ NC State 24	ND -7	ND W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NCSU+0.7 →+4.2▲ 3.5#54

ND+21.6 →+22.4▲ 0.8#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

NCSU

Longer bar = better

#34

Offense

ND better ▶

#15

#70

Defense

Even

#79

−0.5 #106

Turnovers

ND better ▶

+1.0 #13

67 plays #55

Pace

◀ NCSU faster

64 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: NCSU offense

	NCSU off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #45	23.6 #70	NCSU
Yards / play	6.65 #25	5.58 #80	NCSU
PPA / play	+0.26 #29	+0.09 #69	NCSU
Success rate	47% #38	43% #95	NCSU

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	40.8 #13	25.0 #77	ND
Yards / play	7.26 #12	5.64 #87	ND
PPA / play	+0.31 #18	+0.16 #100	ND
Success rate	51% #17	35% #16	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NCSU scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	9.8 #16	10.8 #40	20.7 #23	9.2 #21	4.0 #117	13.2 #69
ND allowed	3.4 #38	13.6 #136	17.0 #114	2.0 #9	4.6 #32	6.6 #14

ND scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	9.6 #18	14.8 #6	24.4 #10	8.4 #33	8.0 #49	16.4 #29
NCSU allowed	7.5 #112	8.5 #95	16.0 #105	4.7 #64	4.3 #31	9.0 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.