Iowa State @ Colorado: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Colorado · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F3 mphgusts 9Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Iowa State

5-1 · Power #36

final

Final

Colorado

2-4 · Power #75

▲ winner

Closing spread

ISU -2.5

✓ COLO W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 26–24 COLO

✗ ISU (57%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -4.5

CloseISU -2.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -4.5

2 → COLO

CloseISU -2.5

2 pts toward Colorado

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -4.5 · closed ISU -2.5 · moved 2 toward COLOmodel ISU -2

model ISU -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (195 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (84 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -4.5

CloseISU -2.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 2.5-point road favorite at COLO, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: COLO won 24–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.6 against an average line of 2.5; 57 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	VT @ SYR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	31–38	L	O53.5
Very close	DUKE @ CAL 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	45–21	W	O54.5
Very close	MRSH @ TROY 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.25	7–16	L	U51.5
Very close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	14–27	L	U50
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	45–18	W	O56
Very close	SYR @ NCSU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1	24–17	W	U51.5
Very close	COLO @ KU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	21–37	L	U59.5
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	35–32	W	O50.5
Very close	BAY @ WVU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	40–43	L	O55
Very close	UNC @ NCSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	20–39	L	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ISU WLLWL	3-3	50%	0-2	2-2
COLO WLWWW	4-2	67%	3-1	2-2

Venue/role: ISU away, as favorite; COLO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU OUUOO	3-3	50%	5-1
COLO UOOUU	2-4	33%	2-4

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
COLO	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU+7.6 →+8.4▲ 0.8#33

COLO+9.6 →+1.3▼ 8.3#63

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ISU

Longer bar = better

COLO

#55

Offense

◀ ISU better

#83

#46

Defense

◀ ISU better

#92

+0.7 #37

Turnovers

◀ ISU better

−0.5 #107

69 plays #43

Pace

◀ ISU faster

61 plays #123

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: ISU offense

	ISU off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	31.3 #57	24.8 #76	Even
Yards / play	5.84 #69	5.82 #101	ISU
PPA / play	+0.23 #37	+0.12 #84	ISU
Success rate	44% #58	45% #107	ISU

When COLO has the ball

Advantage: ISU defense

	COLO off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #89	18.2 #31	ISU
Yards / play	5.85 #68	5.39 #65	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #74	0.00 #31	ISU
Success rate	41% #99	40% #58	ISU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	7.3 #51	9.5 #62	16.8 #56	7.0 #48	7.5 #60	14.5 #51
COLO allowed	2.2 #20	8.3 #92	10.5 #52	5.7 #87	8.7 #120	14.3 #114

COLO scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	4.7 #98	10.3 #45	15.0 #70	4.0 #104	6.0 #86	10.0 #107
ISU allowed	4.0 #47	8.0 #87	12.0 #71	2.2 #16	4.0 #25	6.2 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.