Northwestern @ Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Penn State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff65°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Northwestern

3-2 · Power #59

▲ winner

Final

Penn State

3-2 · Power #17

final

Closing spread

PSU -20.5

✓ NU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

NU 13–34 PSU

✗ PSU (93%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -21.5

ClosePSU -20.5

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -21.5

1 → NU

ClosePSU -20.5

1 pt toward Northwestern

Total

Open48.5

▼ 2

Close46.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -21.5 · closed PSU -20.5 · moved 1 toward NUmodel PSU -22

model PSU -22

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 49% (88 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (227 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -21.5

ClosePSU -20.5

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 20.5-point home favorite against NU, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NU won 22–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.2 against an average line of 20.1; 46 points a game (usually 54.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA vs UK 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-19.5	35–14	W	P49
Very close	UGA vs AUB 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-21	31–13	L	U50
Very close	ORE vs MSU 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-22.5	31–10	L	U53
Very close	TEX vs UK 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	31–14	L	U47
Close	TEX vs BYU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-20.5	35–6	W	U49.5
Close	MIA vs UVA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-18.5	29–26	L	O48
Close	PSU vs RUTG 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-19.5	27–6	W	U40
Close	ALA vs ARK 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-19.5	24–21	L	U45.5
Close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-21	27–25	L	O50
Close	LOU vs UVA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-20	31–24	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NU LWWLW	3-2	60%	0-1	1-1
PSU LLLLL	0-5	0%	0-4	0-5

Venue/role: NU away, as underdog; PSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU UOUUO	2-3	40%	3-2
PSU OUOOO	4-1	80%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NU	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
PSU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NU 7–16 PSU PSU leads · 23 games since 1993 · NU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Penn State 41 @ Northwestern 13	PSU -27	PSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NU−2.5 →−1.5▲ 1.0#71

PSU+20.4 →+15.4▼ 5.0#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

PSU

#76

Offense

PSU better ▶

#39

#67

Defense

PSU better ▶

#28

−1.2 #131

Turnovers

PSU better ▶

+0.8 #31

65 plays #99

Pace

Even

64 plays #105

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NU has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	NU off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #96	17.8 #30	PSU
Yards / play	5.90 #63	4.48 #21	PSU
PPA / play	+0.08 #99	−0.04 #22	PSU
Success rate	46% #47	39% #37	Even

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	38.6 #21	17.0 #26	Even
Yards / play	6.06 #53	5.38 #64	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #54	+0.15 #97	PSU
Success rate	49% #28	42% #79	PSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NU scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	5.6 #81	6.4 #104	12.0 #102	5.4 #84	6.2 #81	11.6 #84
PSU allowed	2.0 #15	4.6 #23	6.6 #13	2.8 #21	5.8 #59	8.6 #34

PSU scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	6.2 #68	7.4 #89	13.6 #84	9.2 #20	14.4 #1	23.6 #3
NU allowed	4.2 #56	5.2 #34	9.4 #37	4.0 #49	3.6 #24	7.6 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.