Nebraska @ Maryland: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Maryland · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Nebraska

4-1 · Power #45

▲ winner

Final

Maryland

4-1 · Power #72

final

Closing spread

NEB -6.5

✓ MD W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

NEB 27–21 MD

✓ NEB (67%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -5.5

CloseNEB -6.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNEB -5.5

1 → NEB

CloseNEB -6.5

1 pt toward Nebraska

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NEB -5.5 · closed NEB -6.5 · moved 1 toward NEBmodel NEB -5.5

model NEB -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 53% (138 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (192 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNEB -5.5

CloseNEB -6.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEB as a 6.5-point road favorite at MD, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NEB won 34–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 47.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 5.5; 46.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TULN @ ARMY 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	14–35	L	O46.5
Very close	KSU @ BYU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	9–38	L	U49.5
Very close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Very close	WASH @ MD 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	24–20	L	U52.5
Very close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Close	SC @ VAN 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-6	28–7	W	U45
Close	KU @ UCF 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	27–20	W	U53.5
Close	UTAH @ ASU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	19–27	L	U46.5
Close	LOU @ UVA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	24–20	L	U54
Close	PSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	41–12	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEB LWWLL	2-3	40%	—	2-2
MD WLLWW	3-2	60%	2-2	2-0

Venue/role: NEB away, as favorite; MD home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEB UOOOO	4-1	80%	4-1
MD UUOUU	1-4	20%	4-1

Went over in Q3. Of 450 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEB	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
MD	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NEB 4–1 MD NEB leads · 5 games since 2016 · NEB has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Maryland 13 @ Nebraska 10	MD -2	MD W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEB+8.3 →+12.4▲ 4.1#25

MD+2.1 →+4.4▲ 2.3#52

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

NEB

Longer bar = better

#31

Offense

◀ NEB better

#78

#21

Defense

Even

#11

+1.2 #6

Turnovers

Even

+1.4 #4

69 plays #38

Pace

Even

68 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEB has the ball

Even matchup

	NEB off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	42.4 #11	13.4 #11	Even
Yards / play	6.51 #34	4.27 #15	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #55	−0.16 #5	MD
Success rate	50% #22	34% #11	Even

When MD has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	MD off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #60	16.2 #22	NEB
Yards / play	5.17 #109	4.25 #13	NEB
PPA / play	+0.16 #60	−0.04 #24	NEB
Success rate	42% #84	36% #23	NEB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NEB scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	8.0 #36	15.0 #5	23.0 #13	8.4 #33	11.0 #8	19.4 #13
MD allowed	1.4 #8	0.6 #1	2.0 #1	3.8 #43	7.6 #94	11.4 #73

MD scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	8.8 #25	13.2 #16	22.0 #18	4.6 #98	3.4 #124	8.0 #123
NEB allowed	2.6 #26	2.8 #12	5.4 #10	7.6 #115	3.2 #14	10.8 #59

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.