Michigan @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at USC · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F5 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Michigan

4-1 · Power #21

final

Final

USC

4-1 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -2.5

✓ USC W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

MICH 28–31 USC

✓ USC (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -1.5

CloseUSC -2.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -1.5

1 → USC

CloseUSC -2.5

1 pt toward USC

Total

Open57.5

no move

Close57.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -1.5 · closed USC -2.5 · moved 1 toward USCmodel USC -6.5

model USC -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 50% (251 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (196 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -1.5

CloseUSC -2.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 2.5-point home favorite against MICH, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: USC won 31–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 3.4; 52.8 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Close	MISS vs UK 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	22–19	L	U55
Close	TENN vs TA&M 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	20–13	W	U54.5
Close	TEX vs UGA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-4	15–30	L	U57
Close	MD vs PUR 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	29–31	L	O59.5
Close	ORE vs UTAH 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-1	20–17	W	U61.5
Close	USC vs ND 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar season form	-4.25	38–27	W	O62.75
Close	UNC vs MIA 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	41–31	W	O57
Close	UCLA vs WSU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	25–17	W	U60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MICH LLWWL	2-3	40%	1-1	0-1
USC WWLLL	2-3	40%	2-1	2-3

Venue/role: MICH away, as underdog; USC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MICH OUOOU	3-2	60%	4-1
USC OOUOO	4-1	80%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 30 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 51% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MICH	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
USC	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MICH 1–0 USC MICH leads · 1 game since 2023 · MICH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2024	USC 24 @ Michigan 27	USC -4.5	MICH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MICH+12.2 →+15.9▲ 3.7#14

USC+14.0 →+17.9▲ 3.9#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MICH

Longer bar = better

USC

#43

Offense

USC better ▶

#32

Defense

◀ MICH better

#71

+1.2 #8

Turnovers

◀ MICH better

+0.8 #28

63 plays #113

Pace

USC faster ▶

66 plays #74

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: MICH offense

	MICH off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #51	23.0 #65	Even
Yards / play	6.91 #20	5.63 #85	MICH
PPA / play	+0.25 #32	+0.06 #55	MICH
Success rate	44% #67	42% #80	Even

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	48.4 #3	16.2 #23	Even
Yards / play	8.53 #1	4.27 #14	Even
PPA / play	+0.51 #1	+0.01 #36	USC
Success rate	59% #2	40% #55	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MICH scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	9.0 #24	8.2 #81	17.2 #48	9.4 #17	6.2 #82	15.6 #37
USC allowed	4.6 #65	5.4 #35	10.0 #42	8.2 #121	4.8 #37	13.0 #94

USC scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	11.0 #9	13.8 #12	24.8 #7	11.0 #5	12.6 #4	23.6 #3
MICH allowed	2.8 #28	7.4 #81	10.2 #49	2.8 #21	3.2 #14	6.0 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.