Ohio State @ Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Ohio State

5-0 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Illinois

5-1 · Power #30

final

Closing spread

OSU -15.5

✓ OSU W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 50 pts

Model before kickoff

OSU 33–17 ILL

✓ OSU (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -16.5

CloseOSU -15.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -16.5

1 → ILL

CloseOSU -15.5

1 pt toward Illinois

Total

Open48.5

▲ 3

Close51.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -16.5 · closed OSU -15.5 · moved 1 toward ILLmodel OSU -16

model OSU -16

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 13.5–17.5 since 2023: won 81%, covered 52% (79 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (224 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -16.5

CloseOSU -15.5

Total48.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 15.5-point road favorite at ILL, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 34–16; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 50 points stayed under 51.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.6 against an average line of 16.2; 52.6 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA @ MSST 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-16.25	45–19	W	O53
Close	MICH @ MD 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-17.5	31–24	L	O50.5
Close	OSU @ PUR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-17.5	41–7	W	U53
Close	PSU @ ILL 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	30–13	W	U47.5
Close	UTAH @ ASU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-16.75	34–13	W	U54
Close	TEX @ ARK 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-13	20–10	L	U57.5
Close	ALA @ ARK 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-17	49–26	W	O61
Close	ALA @ AUB 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	27–24	L	O48
Close	MICH @ MINN 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-18.5	52–10	W	O46
Close	TEX @ VAN 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-17	27–24	L	P51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OSU WWLWW	4-1	80%	1-0	4-1
ILL WWLWW	5-1	83%	3-0	1-1

Venue/role: OSU away, as favorite; ILL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU UOUUO	2-3	40%	5-0
ILL OUOOO	4-2	67%	5-1

Stayed under: it needed 15 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 54% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSU	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
ILL	9-1 90%	9-1 90%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+26.4 →+25.8▼ 0.6#1

ILL+4.1 →+8.5▲ 4.4#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

OSU

Longer bar = better

ILL

#15

Offense

◀ OSU better

#32

Defense

◀ OSU better

#105

+0.2 #56

Turnovers

ILL better ▶

+1.2 #12

61 plays #125

Pace

Even

61 plays #124

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	37.4 #25	24.0 #72	OSU
Yards / play	7.45 #10	5.82 #100	OSU
PPA / play	+0.29 #22	+0.21 #119	OSU
Success rate	54% #4	47% #127	OSU

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	ILL off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #28	5.0 #1	OSU
Yards / play	6.54 #32	3.84 #3	OSU
PPA / play	+0.27 #27	−0.19 #2	OSU
Success rate	47% #40	34% #13	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

OSU scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	6.2 #68	10.4 #43	16.6 #59	9.0 #27	11.8 #7	20.8 #8
ILL allowed	5.2 #76	6.8 #65	12.0 #71	5.7 #89	6.3 #69	12.0 #80

ILL scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	6.3 #64	11.3 #35	17.7 #47	9.7 #15	9.7 #24	19.3 #14
OSU allowed	0.6 #3	1.2 #2	1.8 #1	1.8 #10	1.4 #1	3.2 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.