Fresno State @ Colorado State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Fri, Oct 10, 2025, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Colorado State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F2 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Fresno State

5-1 · Power #82

final

Final

Colorado State

1-4 · Power #116

▲ winner

Closing spread

FRES -5.5

✓ CSU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

FRES 26–21 CSU

✗ FRES (63%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -6.5

CloseFRES -5.5

Total45.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFRES -6.5

1 → CSU

CloseFRES -5.5

1 pt toward Colorado State

Total

Open45.5

▲ 3

Close48.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FRES -6.5 · closed FRES -5.5 · moved 1 toward CSUmodel FRES -0.5

model FRES -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 48% (118 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (222 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -6.5

CloseFRES -5.5

Total45.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 5.5-point road favorite at CSU, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CSU won 49–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.3 against an average line of 4.6; 50.9 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FAU @ CLT 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	38–16	W	O45
Very close	FRES @ SDSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	18–33	L	O47.25
Close	FRES @ HAW 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	23–21	L	U47.5
Close	SHSU @ FIU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-5	10–7	L	U47
Close	NIU @ CMU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-4.75	31–37	L	O48
Close	NMSU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	28–7	W	U49
Close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Close	USF @ RICE 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	28–35	L	O54
Close	UL @ ODU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-6	31–38	L	O51
Close	BOIS @ SDSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	34–31	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES WWWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	1-2
CSU WLWLL	2-3	40%	1-2	2-1

Venue/role: FRES away, as favorite; CSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES OOOUU	3-3	50%	5-1
CSU OUUUO	2-3	40%	1-4

Went over in Q2. Of 477 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRES	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
CSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FRES 1–0 CSU FRES leads · 1 game since 2023 · FRES has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Colorado State 22 @ Fresno State 28	FRES -3.5	FRES W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FRES−4.5 →−3.9▲ 0.6#81

CSU−6.9 →−9.8▼ 2.9#105

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

FRES

Longer bar = better

CSU

#52

Offense

◀ FRES better

#101

#57

Defense

◀ FRES better

#105

+0.2 #65

Turnovers

◀ FRES better

−0.4 #105

62 plays #119

Pace

CSU faster ▶

67 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: FRES offense

	FRES off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #58	27.4 #96	FRES
Yards / play	5.98 #57	6.06 #112	FRES
PPA / play	+0.19 #49	+0.18 #105	FRES
Success rate	46% #43	44% #105	FRES

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	CSU off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #126	19.5 #36	FRES
Yards / play	5.14 #111	5.08 #46	FRES
PPA / play	+0.09 #92	+0.11 #76	Even
Success rate	43% #73	41% #70	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FRES scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	6.3 #65	10.7 #42	17.0 #56	4.7 #95	9.0 #33	13.7 #65
CSU allowed	6.2 #92	10.2 #115	16.4 #108	6.2 #96	4.8 #39	11.0 #63

CSU scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	2.0 #129	4.0 #128	6.0 #131	4.2 #100	6.8 #71	11.0 #91
FRES allowed	5.0 #75	7.0 #67	12.0 #71	4.3 #55	3.2 #15	7.5 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.