Nevada @ Fresno State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Fresno State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Nevada

1-3 · Power #121

final

Final

Fresno State

4-1 · Power #82

▲ winner

Closing spread

FRES -13.5

✓ NEV W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

NEV 16–30 FRES

✓ FRES (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -13.5

CloseFRES -13.5

Total44.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFRES -13.5

no move

CloseFRES -13.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

▲ 2

Close46.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened FRES -13.5 · unchangedmodel FRES -13.5 matches the line

model FRES -13.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 84%, covered 49% (108 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenFRES -13.5

CloseFRES -13.5

Total44.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 13.5-point home favorite against NEV, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 20–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 46.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.2 against an average line of 13.4; 52.2 points a game (usually 54). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TOL vs CMU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-15	37–10	W	U52
Close	SHSU vs NMSU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar total & team ratings	-15	31–11	W	U44.5
Close	TROY vs ULM 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-15	34–16	W	O48.5
Close	MRSH vs ODU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-14	41–35	L	O47
Close	OHIO vs CMU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-10.5	34–20	W	O48.5
Close	WYO vs HAW 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	42–9	W	O45
Close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & total	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Close	BGSU vs ODU 2024 · Week 5 · close	-11	27–30	L	O51.5
Close	MRSH vs ULM 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-10.5	28–23	L	O48
Close	SJSU vs WYO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-13	24–14	L	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEV WLLL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-1
FRES LWWWL	3-2	60%	2-0	1-1

Venue/role: NEV away, as underdog; FRES home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEV OUUU	1-3	25%	1-3
FRES UOOOU	3-2	60%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEV	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	3-7 30%
FRES	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NEV 0–2 FRES FRES leads · 2 games since 2023 · FRES has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2024	Fresno State 24 @ Nevada 21	FRES -2.5	FRES W
Sep 30 2023	Nevada 9 @ Fresno State 27	FRES -25.5	NEV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEV−9.7 →−13.8▼ 4.1#123

FRES−4.5 →−3.7▲ 0.8#78

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

NEV

Longer bar = better

FRES

#121

Offense

FRES better ▶

#44

#100

Defense

FRES better ▶

#72

−1.5 #136

Turnovers

FRES better ▶

−0.4 #101

63 plays #114

Pace

Even

62 plays #120

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEV has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	NEV off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #132	20.0 #42	FRES
Yards / play	5.35 #98	5.19 #53	FRES
PPA / play	−0.05 #132	+0.17 #104	FRES
Success rate	38% #123	43% #87	FRES

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: FRES offense

	FRES off	NEV def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #52	27.0 #95	FRES
Yards / play	6.07 #53	5.60 #79	FRES
PPA / play	+0.22 #39	+0.16 #100	FRES
Success rate	48% #30	47% #125	FRES

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NEV scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEV scored	0.8 #134	9.0 #66	9.8 #116	0.8 #135	4.5 #106	5.3 #133
FRES allowed	5.4 #79	8.4 #94	13.8 #89	3.8 #40	2.4 #7	6.2 #11

FRES scoring against the NEV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	7.6 #43	8.8 #69	16.4 #59	5.6 #72	10.8 #12	16.4 #30
NEV allowed	5.0 #76	6.8 #58	11.8 #68	4.8 #66	10.5 #131	15.3 #123

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.