UNLV @ Wyoming: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Wyoming · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F0 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

UNLV

4-0 · Power #74

▲ winner

Final

Wyoming

2-2 · Power #107

final

Closing spread

UNLV -4.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 30–25 WYO

✓ UNLV (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -5.5

CloseUNLV -4.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -5.5

1 → WYO

CloseUNLV -4.5

1 pt toward Wyoming

Total

Open53.5

no move

Close53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -5.5 · closed UNLV -4.5 · moved 1 toward WYOmodel UNLV -5.5

model UNLV -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 49% (112 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (216 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -5.5

CloseUNLV -4.5

Total53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 4.5-point road favorite at WYO, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 31–17; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.5 against an average line of 4.4; 53.1 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNT @ FAU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	41–37	L	O58.5
Very close	APP @ ODU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & spread	-6	21–28	L	U56
Close	CCU @ TROY 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-4	24–38	L	O51.5
Close	WSU @ FRES 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	25–17	W	U60.5
Close	USU @ SDSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-2.25	32–24	W	U56.5
Close	JXST @ LT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & team ratings	-10	44–37	L	O55.5
Close	FAU @ UTEP 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-3	21–24	L	U50.75
Close	CONN @ BUFF 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar total & team ratings	-3	20–17	P	U51.5
Close	HOU @ NAVY 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	38–20	W	O51
Close	MRSH @ TROY 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-3.25	7–16	L	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV LWWW	3-1	75%	2-0	2-1
WYO WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	0-2

Venue/role: UNLV away, as favorite; WYO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV OUUO	2-2	50%	4-0
WYO UUUO	1-3	25%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
WYO	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNLV 13–14 WYO WYO leads · 27 games since 1978 · UNLV has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 10 2023	Wyoming 14 @ UNLV 34	UNLV -3	UNLV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV+5.4 →−0.8▼ 6.2#72

WYO−11.9 →−11.2▲ 0.7#111

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

UNLV

Longer bar = better

WYO

#29

Offense

◀ UNLV better

#105

#100

Defense

WYO better ▶

#63

+1.5 #5

Turnovers

◀ UNLV better

+0.3 #59

66 plays #82

Pace

Even

66 plays #86

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	WYO def	Edge
Points / game	36.8 #33	18.8 #39	Even
Yards / play	6.85 #22	5.34 #68	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.25 #34	+0.06 #64	UNLV
Success rate	49% #27	42% #82	UNLV

When WYO has the ball

Even matchup

	WYO off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	16.8 #127	28.3 #104	UNLV
Yards / play	5.27 #105	6.29 #122	Even
PPA / play	+0.07 #95	+0.04 #55	UNLV
Success rate	41% #93	46% #118	WYO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the WYO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	6.0 #76	11.8 #31	17.8 #46	7.8 #45	11.3 #11	19.0 #18
WYO allowed	0.8 #6	7.0 #72	7.8 #23	5.3 #75	5.8 #60	11.0 #62

WYO scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WYO scored	1.8 #131	4.0 #125	5.8 #131	4.3 #101	6.8 #75	11.0 #91
UNLV allowed	7.8 #115	5.0 #30	12.8 #81	7.8 #118	7.8 #100	15.5 #123

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.