South Alabama @ Troy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Troy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F10 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

South Alabama

1-4 · Power #102

final

Final

Troy

2-2 · Power #99

▲ winner

Closing spread

USA -2.5

✓ TROY W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

USA 25–24 TROY

✗ USA (54%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTROY -2.5

CloseUSA -2.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTROY -2.5

5 → USA

CloseUSA -2.5

5 pts toward South Alabama

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TROY -2.5 · closed USA -2.5 · moved 5 toward USAmodel TROY -2

model TROY -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 47% (186 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 42% (127 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTROY -2.5

CloseUSA -2.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USA as a 2.5-point road favorite at TROY, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TROY won 31–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.4 against an average line of 2.2; 57 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WMU @ BUFF 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & situation	-1.5	48–41	W	O49.5
Very close	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5
Close	MRSH @ UL 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	51–54	L	O48
Close	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	17–21	L	U45
Close	WAKE @ CONN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	23–20	W	U55.5
Close	GASO @ ODU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-1	19–47	L	O51.5
Close	SJSU @ WYO 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	33–16	W	O42.5
Close	TOL @ SDSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total	-3	14–17	L	U44.5
Close	PUR @ NEB 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & season form	-1	14–31	L	O39.5
Close	USM @ TXST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	20–14	W	U43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA LWWLL	2-3	40%	1-1	0-2
TROY WWLW	3-1	75%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: USA away, as favorite; TROY home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA OOUOU	3-2	60%	1-4
TROY OUUU	1-3	25%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 400 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
TROY	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

USA 4–10 TROY TROY leads · 14 games since 2012 · TROY has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 15 2024	Troy 9 @ South Alabama 25	USA -8.5	USA W
Nov 2 2023	South Alabama 10 @ Troy 28	TROY -7	TROY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA−2.3 →−7.3▼ 5.0#94

TROY−7.1 →−7.8▼ 0.7#96

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

USA

Longer bar = better

TROY

#93

Offense

◀ USA better

#119

#106

Defense

TROY better ▶

#56

−0.6 #113

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #107

70 plays #35

Pace

◀ USA faster

67 plays #58

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Advantage: TROY defense

	USA off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #88	23.0 #68	Even
Yards / play	5.48 #89	5.28 #64	TROY
PPA / play	+0.04 #106	+0.04 #53	TROY
Success rate	42% #87	38% #40	TROY

When TROY has the ball

Even matchup

	TROY off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #113	31.8 #121	Even
Yards / play	4.44 #133	5.58 #80	USA
PPA / play	+0.04 #108	+0.23 #120	Even
Success rate	38% #120	45% #104	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

USA scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	6.2 #68	6.0 #107	12.2 #101	4.6 #98	8.4 #45	13.0 #73
TROY allowed	3.5 #47	6.8 #62	10.3 #56	7.8 #118	5.0 #46	12.8 #88

TROY scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	1.8 #131	5.8 #110	7.5 #125	0.8 #133	12.3 #5	13.0 #73
USA allowed	7.0 #108	9.0 #102	16.0 #102	8.2 #124	7.6 #94	15.8 #127

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.