Florida Atlantic @ Rice: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2025)

Sat, Oct 4, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Rice · Conference game

Weather at kickoff86°F7 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Florida Atlantic

1-3 · Power #108

▲ winner

Final

Rice

3-2 · Power #126

final

Closing spread

RICE -4.5

✓ FAU W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

FAU 23–28 RICE

✗ RICE (63%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRICE -4.5

CloseRICE -4.5

Total52.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenRICE -4.5

no move

CloseRICE -4.5

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

▲ 3

Close55.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened RICE -4.5 · unchangedmodel RICE -4.5 matches the line

model RICE -4.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (171 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRICE -4.5

CloseRICE -4.5

Total52.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like RICE as a 4.5-point home favorite against FAU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: FAU won 27–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 55.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.1 against an average line of 3.4; 45.9 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KENN vs MTSU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	24–16	W	U54.5
Very close	NIU vs WMU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	24–0	W	U55.5
Very close	CMU vs EMU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	24–13	W	U55.5
Very close	CCU vs GASO 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2	6–26	L	U59.5
Very close	WMU vs CMU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	38–28	W	O57.5
Very close	NIU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4	14–22	L	U54.5
Very close	BALL vs EMU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	16–20	L	U57.5
Very close	AKR vs BUFF 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	10–13	L	U55.5
Very close	BUFF vs BALL 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	51–48	L	O55.5
Very close	FIU vs FAU 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2	38–28	W	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FAU LWLL	1-3	25%	0-2	0-3
RICE WLLWW	3-2	60%	0-2	1-1

Venue/role: FAU away, as underdog; RICE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FAU UOOO	3-1	75%	1-3
RICE UOOOU	3-2	60%	3-2

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FAU	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	8-2 80%
RICE	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FAU 3–3 RICE Series tied · 6 games since 2013 · FAU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	Florida Atlantic 21 @ Rice 24	RICE -3	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FAU−10.0 →−11.8▼ 1.8#114

RICE−9.0 →−10.7▼ 1.7#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

FAU

Longer bar = better

RICE

#99

Offense

Even

#106

#108

Defense

RICE better ▶

#51

−2.0 #137

Turnovers

RICE better ▶

+0.4 #50

84 plays #1

Pace

◀ FAU faster

65 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FAU has the ball

Advantage: RICE defense

	FAU off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #73	20.4 #51	RICE
Yards / play	5.32 #102	5.29 #65	RICE
PPA / play	0.00 #123	+0.09 #74	RICE
Success rate	41% #97	34% #13	RICE

When RICE has the ball

Even matchup

	RICE off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	20.4 #114	36.5 #128	Even
Yards / play	4.67 #130	5.82 #98	FAU
PPA / play	+0.08 #90	+0.20 #110	Even
Success rate	42% #91	43% #94	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

FAU scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	10.8 #13	10.0 #50	20.8 #26	0.8 #133	7.8 #57	8.5 #120
RICE allowed	4.0 #51	4.6 #20	8.6 #36	3.2 #29	8.6 #112	11.8 #74

RICE scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	2.8 #121	8.2 #80	11.0 #108	3.4 #118	6.0 #86	9.4 #113
FAU allowed	6.0 #91	10.8 #118	16.8 #110	10.3 #130	9.5 #124	19.8 #132

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.