Rice @ Navy: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Navy · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Rice

3-1 · Power #126

final

Final

Navy

3-0 · Power #64

▲ winner

Closing spread

NAVY -14.5

✓ RICE W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

RICE 17–32 NAVY

✓ NAVY (86%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -14.5

CloseNAVY -14.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNAVY -14.5

no move

CloseNAVY -14.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NAVY -14.5 · unchangedmodel NAVY -19

model NAVY -19

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 88%, covered 55% (101 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNAVY -14.5

CloseNAVY -14.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NAVY as a 14.5-point home favorite against RICE, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: NAVY won 21–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 45.5, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 49%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 16.7 against an average line of 14.3; 56.7 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MD vs IU 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & season form	-14	44–17	W	O50
Close	UVA vs STAN 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-16.5	48–20	W	O48.5
Close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-14	56–28	W	O53.5
Close	TOL vs NIU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-13	35–33	L	O48
Close	AFA vs SDSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & season form	-10.5	49–10	W	O43.5
Close	DUKE vs CONN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & spread	-17	26–21	L	O46.5
Close	USA vs TXST 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & total	-16	38–21	W	O46
Close	MINN vs NEV 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total	-17	27–0	W	U44
Close	NIU vs BUFF 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-13	20–23	L	O42.5
Close	TULN vs USM 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-11.75	24–27	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RICE WLLW	2-2	50%	2-0	1-1
NAVY WLW	2-1	67%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: RICE away, as underdog; NAVY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RICE UOOO	3-1	75%	3-1
NAVY OOO	3-0	100%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RICE	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
NAVY	7-3 70%	5-4 56%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

RICE 1–0 NAVY RICE leads · 1 game since 2023 · RICE has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	Navy 10 @ Rice 24	NAVY -13.5	RICE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RICE−9.0 →−10.8▼ 1.8#110

NAVY+1.2 →+3.5▲ 2.3#54

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

RICE

Longer bar = better

NAVY

#95

Offense

NAVY better ▶

#11

#39

Defense

Even

#45

+0.3 #58

Turnovers

NAVY better ▶

+0.7 #40

67 plays #68

Pace

Even

67 plays #61

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: NAVY defense

	RICE off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #99	18.0 #38	NAVY
Yards / play	4.84 #124	5.30 #68	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.10 #87	−0.04 #26	NAVY
Success rate	44% #69	38% #46	NAVY

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: NAVY offense

	NAVY off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	44.0 #13	20.3 #54	NAVY
Yards / play	7.33 #16	4.77 #40	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.40 #11	+0.03 #50	NAVY
Success rate	59% #3	30% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

RICE scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	3.5 #109	10.3 #51	13.8 #86	3.5 #112	5.0 #101	8.5 #115
NAVY allowed	7.0 #102	6.7 #61	13.7 #92	2.3 #23	2.0 #10	4.3 #6

NAVY scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	9.3 #28	15.0 #16	24.3 #18	10.3 #14	9.3 #33	19.7 #16
RICE allowed	3.3 #42	4.0 #21	7.3 #26	4.0 #45	9.0 #112	13.0 #96

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.