Akron @ Toledo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Toledo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Akron

1-3 · Power #127

final

Final

Toledo

2-2 · Power #48

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -22.5

✓ TOL W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

AKR 13–36 TOL

✓ TOL (95%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -21.5

CloseTOL -22.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -21.5

1 → TOL

CloseTOL -22.5

1 pt toward Toledo

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -21.5 · closed TOL -22.5 · moved 1 toward TOLmodel TOL -25

model TOL -25

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 21.5–23.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 42% (67 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (174 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -21.5

CloseTOL -22.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 22.5-point home favorite against AKR, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 45–3; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 49.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.4 against an average line of 22.4; 61.2 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB vs NMSU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-24	14–49	L	O50.5
Very close	UNLV vs SDSU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-21.5	41–20	L	O55
Very close	SJSU vs NEV 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-24.5	35–28	L	O44.5
Very close	TOL vs EMU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-19.5	49–23	W	O45.5
Close	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-19.5	30–27	L	O48
Close	UCF vs TEM 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-23.5	70–13	W	O46.5
Close	JMU vs USM 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-24	32–15	L	U54
Close	ARK vs LT 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-23.5	35–14	L	O48.5
Close	SJSU vs CSU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-24	28–16	L	U44.5
Close	SMU vs NAVY 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-20.25	59–14	W	O46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	1-2
TOL WWWL	3-1	75%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: AKR away, as underdog; TOL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR UOUO	2-2	50%	1-3
TOL UOOU	2-2	50%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 55% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKR	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
TOL	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

AKR 1–0 TOL AKR leads · 1 game since 2023 · AKR has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 26 2024	Toledo 14 @ Akron 21	TOL -9.5	AKR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AKR−13.5 →−19.3▼ 5.8#132

TOL−4.5 →+1.3▲ 5.8#66

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

AKR

Longer bar = better

TOL

#121

Offense

TOL better ▶

#83

#89

Defense

TOL better ▶

#28

+0.8 #33

Turnovers

Even

+0.8 #39

68 plays #58

Pace

TOL faster ▶

72 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	AKR off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #113	14.8 #26	TOL
Yards / play	5.03 #117	3.92 #13	TOL
PPA / play	−0.01 #125	−0.09 #15	TOL
Success rate	36% #129	39% #56	TOL

When TOL has the ball

Even matchup

	TOL off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #53	29.0 #107	TOL
Yards / play	5.81 #70	6.25 #119	TOL
PPA / play	+0.06 #99	+0.04 #56	AKR
Success rate	39% #108	41% #75	AKR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

AKR scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	6.8 #71	7.8 #87	14.5 #81	1.8 #130	3.5 #122	5.3 #134
TOL allowed	3.5 #52	0.8 #2	4.3 #10	1.5 #12	9.0 #112	10.5 #57

TOL scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	6.0 #80	14.5 #21	20.5 #34	7.8 #48	5.3 #95	13.0 #74
AKR allowed	5.8 #92	11.0 #124	16.8 #111	7.0 #103	5.3 #60	12.3 #84

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.