Toledo @ Bowling Green: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Bowling Green · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F6 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Toledo

3-2 · Power #48

final

Final

Bowling Green

2-3 · Power #120

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -10.5

✓ BGSU W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 29–19 BGSU

✗ TOL (77%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -9.5

CloseTOL -10.5

Total49.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -9.5

1 → TOL

CloseTOL -10.5

1 pt toward Toledo

Total

Open49.5

▼ 4

Close45.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -9.5 · closed TOL -10.5 · moved 1 toward TOLmodel TOL -9.5

model TOL -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 51% (67 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (191 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -9.5

CloseTOL -10.5

Total49.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 10.5-point road favorite at BGSU, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BGSU won 28–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 45.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.8 against an average line of 10.4; 46.2 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SMU @ ECU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-11.5	31–10	W	U49
Close	UAB @ RICE 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	24–28	L	O51
Close	NAVY @ RICE 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-12.5	10–24	L	U49
Close	USA @ USM 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-7.5	27–20	L	O45
Close	TOL @ BGSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-10	32–31	L	O49.5
Close	USA @ ARST 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-9	31–3	W	U52
Close	DUKE @ BC 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-12	38–31	L	O47.25
Close	FRES @ WYO 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-6	19–24	L	P43
Close	TOL @ BUFF 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	15–30	L	O44.5
Close	CAL @ SDSU 2025 · Week 4 · close	-14	0–34	L	U47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL WWWLW	4-1	80%	1-1	3-1
BGSU LWWWL	3-2	60%	1-1	3-1

Venue/role: TOL away, as favorite; BGSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL UOOUU	2-3	40%	3-2
BGSU UOUOO	3-2	60%	2-3

Went over in Q4. Of 365 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
BGSU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TOL 33–30 BGSU (1 tied) TOL leads · 64 games since 1962 · BGSU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Bowling Green 41 @ Toledo 26	TOL -1.5	BGSU W
Nov 14 2023	Toledo 32 @ Bowling Green 31	TOL -9.5	BGSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL−4.5 →+3.1▲ 7.6#59

BGSU−4.2 →−7.7▼ 3.5#95

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

TOL

Longer bar = better

BGSU

#54

Offense

◀ TOL better

#115

#11

Defense

◀ TOL better

#86

+0.8 #32

Turnovers

Even

+0.6 #40

70 plays #35

Pace

◀ TOL faster

63 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	BGSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.8 #37	25.8 #84	TOL
Yards / play	6.34 #42	6.09 #114	TOL
PPA / play	+0.16 #61	+0.10 #72	Even
Success rate	43% #76	42% #73	Even

When BGSU has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	BGSU off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #110	12.4 #9	TOL
Yards / play	5.12 #112	3.60 #2	TOL
PPA / play	−0.01 #126	−0.14 #6	TOL
Success rate	40% #111	38% #28	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the BGSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	7.6 #42	15.8 #3	23.4 #14	6.8 #52	5.6 #92	12.4 #77
BGSU allowed	5.6 #84	7.0 #67	12.6 #77	8.0 #118	5.2 #47	13.2 #95

BGSU scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BGSU scored	4.6 #101	4.6 #120	9.2 #120	3.2 #121	8.8 #37	12.0 #82
TOL allowed	2.8 #29	1.2 #2	4.0 #7	1.2 #6	7.2 #85	8.4 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.