Kent State @ Toledo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 2:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Toledo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff82°F11 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Kent State

2-4 · Power #132

final

Final

Toledo

3-3 · Power #48

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -25.5

✓ TOL W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

KENT 12–38 TOL

✓ TOL (97%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -24.5

CloseTOL -25.5

Total52.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -24.5

1 → TOL

CloseTOL -25.5

1 pt toward Toledo

Total

Open52.5

▼ 4

Close48.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -24.5 · closed TOL -25.5 · moved 1 toward TOLmodel TOL -30.5

model TOL -30.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 24.5–26.5 since 2023: won 97%, covered 47% (59 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (202 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -24.5

CloseTOL -25.5

Total52.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 25.5-point home favorite against KENT, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 45–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.2 against an average line of 25; 48.4 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FRES vs KENT 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-27.5	53–10	W	O47.5
Very close	FRES vs NEV 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-24.5	27–9	L	U51.5
Close	JMU vs USM 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-24	32–15	L	U54
Close	SMU vs CLT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-23.5	34–16	L	U53.5
Close	FLA vs CLT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-28	22–7	L	U48.5
Close	LIB vs NMSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-24	14–49	L	O50.5
Close	SC vs AKR 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-25	50–7	W	O41.5
Close	JMU vs CONN 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest	-25	44–6	W	O47.5
Close	ORST vs COLO 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-23	42–9	W	O47.5
Close	UK vs AKR 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-25.25	35–3	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENT LWLWW	3-2	60%	1-2	2-2
TOL WWLWL	4-2	67%	3-0	3-2

Venue/role: KENT away, as underdog; TOL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENT OOOUU	3-2	60%	2-4
TOL OOUUO	3-3	50%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 494 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENT	2-8 20%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%
TOL	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENT−26.4 →−22.3▲ 4.1#135

TOL−4.5 →+3.3▲ 7.8#57

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

KENT

Longer bar = better

TOL

#129

Offense

TOL better ▶

#54

#122

Defense

TOL better ▶

−0.2 #82

Turnovers

TOL better ▶

+0.5 #47

60 plays #129

Pace

TOL faster ▶

70 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENT has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	KENT off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	19.2 #119	15.0 #12	TOL
Yards / play	4.51 #134	3.70 #1	TOL
PPA / play	−0.04 #130	−0.11 #7	TOL
Success rate	34% #134	35% #13	TOL

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	33.7 #45	37.7 #133	TOL
Yards / play	6.26 #39	6.32 #124	TOL
PPA / play	+0.13 #71	+0.19 #111	TOL
Success rate	44% #60	46% #118	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

KENT scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	4.7 #97	3.5 #132	8.2 #126	5.8 #70	5.2 #101	11.0 #93
TOL allowed	2.3 #19	2.2 #3	4.5 #4	2.2 #13	8.3 #110	10.5 #52

TOL scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	8.7 #26	14.3 #4	23.0 #9	5.7 #74	5.0 #105	10.7 #100
KENT allowed	11.0 #131	11.5 #125	22.5 #134	9.8 #128	5.3 #48	15.2 #121

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.