Buffalo @ Massachusetts: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 2:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Massachusetts · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Buffalo

3-3 · Power #118

▲ winner

Final

Massachusetts

0-6 · Power #136

final

Closing spread

BUFF -16.5

✓ MASS W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

BUFF 32–17 MASS

✓ BUFF (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -17.5

CloseBUFF -16.5

Total44.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUFF -17.5

1 → MASS

CloseBUFF -16.5

1 pt toward Massachusetts

Total

Open44.5

▲ 3

Close47.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUFF -17.5 · closed BUFF -16.5 · moved 1 toward MASSmodel BUFF -13

model BUFF -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 14.5–18.5 since 2023: won 88%, covered 55% (58 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (238 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -17.5

CloseBUFF -16.5

Total44.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUFF as a 16.5-point road favorite at MASS, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BUFF won 28–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19.5 against an average line of 15.8; 53.5 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WKU @ NMSU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-18	41–28	L	O53.5
Close	ASU @ COLO 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-13	42–34	L	O48.5
Close	FAU @ FIU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-15.25	52–7	W	O54.5
Close	M-OH @ KENT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-14.5	23–3	W	U49.5
Close	BUFF @ MASS 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-17	34–7	W	U47.5
Close	NIU @ KENT 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-20.5	37–27	L	O44.75
Close	HOU @ OKST 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-14.5	39–17	W	O47.5
Close	CAL @ COLO 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-15	13–20	L	U49
Close	JXST @ KENN 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-17.5	63–24	W	O49.5
Close	WMU @ MASS 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-12.5	21–3	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUFF WLLLL	2-4	33%	1-1	1-3
MASS LLWLL	1-5	17%	0-3	1-4

Venue/role: BUFF away, as favorite; MASS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUFF OOUUO	3-3	50%	3-3
MASS OOUUU	3-3	50%	0-6

Went over in Q4. Of 463 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUFF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
MASS	0-10 0%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BUFF 1–0 MASS BUFF leads · 1 game since 2023 · BUFF has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2024	Massachusetts 3 @ Buffalo 34	BUFF -3.5	BUFF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUFF−9.8 →−10.9▼ 1.1#109

MASS−14.6 →−24.8▼ 10.2#136

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

BUFF

Longer bar = better

MASS

#95

Offense

◀ BUFF better

#135

#57

Defense

◀ BUFF better

#125

−0.2 #85

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #93

67 plays #65

Pace

◀ BUFF faster

63 plays #113

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: BUFF offense

	BUFF off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #88	36.8 #131	BUFF
Yards / play	5.25 #102	6.03 #112	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #78	+0.23 #125	BUFF
Success rate	39% #111	48% #130	Even

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: BUFF defense

	MASS off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	9.7 #137	21.3 #52	BUFF
Yards / play	3.78 #137	4.70 #23	BUFF
PPA / play	−0.11 #135	+0.13 #87	BUFF
Success rate	36% #131	41% #64	BUFF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BUFF scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	5.2 #86	5.7 #113	10.8 #109	8.7 #24	4.5 #109	13.2 #65
MASS allowed	9.2 #126	10.3 #116	19.5 #130	11.0 #133	6.3 #66	17.3 #131

MASS scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	4.2 #105	4.5 #121	8.7 #123	0.5 #136	0.5 #136	1.0 #136
BUFF allowed	2.3 #19	5.2 #28	7.5 #17	4.5 #56	8.3 #111	12.8 #89

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.