Akron @ Buffalo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Buffalo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Akron

2-6 · Power #127

▲ winner

Final

Buffalo

4-3 · Power #118

final

Closing spread

BUFF -10.5

✓ AKR W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

AKR 18–29 BUFF

✗ BUFF (78%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -10.5

CloseBUFF -10.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUFF -10.5

no move

CloseBUFF -10.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

▲ 1

Close48.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUFF -10.5 · unchangedmodel BUFF -12

model BUFF -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 40% (126 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUFF -10.5

CloseBUFF -10.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUFF as a 10.5-point home favorite against AKR, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: AKR won 24–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 48.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 10.2; 63.8 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ECU vs TEM 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-8.5	56–34	W	O48.5
Very close	BALL vs CONN 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	25–21	L	U47.5
Very close	M-OH vs EMU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	44–30	W	O47.5
Very close	LIB vs NMSU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-10.5	30–27	L	O48.5
Very close	UL vs ULM 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	52–21	W	O53.25
Very close	NIU vs BALL 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	17–20	L	U43
Very close	ARMY vs CONN 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	34–17	W	O45
Very close	FIU vs MTSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	35–24	W	O51
Very close	APP vs CCU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	37–45	L	O48
Very close	LT vs SHSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-8.5	27–42	L	O49.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR WLWLL	3-5	38%	1-3	2-5
BUFF LLLLL	2-5	29%	1-3	1-4

Venue/role: AKR away, as underdog; BUFF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR OUOUO	4-4	50%	2-6
BUFF OUUOO	4-3	57%	4-3

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKR	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
BUFF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

AKR 0–2 BUFF BUFF leads · 2 games since 2023 · BUFF has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	Buffalo 41 @ Akron 30	BUFF -2.5	BUFF W
Sep 30 2023	Buffalo 13 @ Akron 10	AKR -3	BUFF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AKR−13.5 →−19.6▼ 6.1#132

BUFF−9.8 →−11.0▼ 1.2#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

AKR

Longer bar = better

BUFF

#123

Offense

BUFF better ▶

#95

#97

Defense

BUFF better ▶

#51

+0.1 #68

Turnovers

◀ AKR better

−0.3 #99

67 plays #64

Pace

BUFF faster ▶

69 plays #37

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: BUFF defense

	AKR off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	18.1 #126	21.3 #46	BUFF
Yards / play	4.84 #126	4.77 #24	BUFF
PPA / play	−0.01 #124	+0.13 #91	BUFF
Success rate	39% #117	39% #43	BUFF

When BUFF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUFF off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #86	30.6 #112	BUFF
Yards / play	5.31 #100	6.29 #122	BUFF
PPA / play	+0.12 #86	+0.14 #94	Even
Success rate	40% #108	41% #60	AKR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

AKR scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	4.4 #110	6.9 #94	11.3 #107	3.9 #113	3.0 #129	6.9 #132
BUFF allowed	2.0 #11	6.4 #58	8.4 #20	4.9 #58	7.1 #83	12.0 #72

BUFF scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	4.9 #97	5.9 #108	10.7 #112	8.9 #20	5.0 #103	13.9 #55
AKR allowed	6.8 #99	9.4 #104	16.1 #112	7.8 #119	6.8 #78	14.5 #113

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.