Massachusetts @ Central Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Central Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F1 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Massachusetts

0-7 · Power #136

final

Final

Central Michigan

4-3 · Power #103

▲ winner

Closing spread

CMU -17.5

✓ CMU W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

MASS 16–33 CMU

✓ CMU (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCMU -15.5

CloseCMU -17.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCMU -15.5

2 → CMU

CloseCMU -17.5

2 pts toward Central Michigan

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CMU -15.5 · closed CMU -17.5 · moved 2 toward CMUmodel CMU -18

model CMU -18

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 50% (115 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (203 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCMU -15.5

CloseCMU -17.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CMU as a 17.5-point home favorite against MASS, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CMU won 38–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 88%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.9 against an average line of 16.7; 56.3 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY vs USM 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-17.5	52–20	W	O49
Very close	SHSU vs NMSU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-15	31–11	W	U44.5
Close	OHIO vs BALL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-17.5	42–21	W	O51.5
Close	UNM vs NEV 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	24–22	L	U49.5
Close	CONN vs TEM 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-17.5	29–20	L	P49
Close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Close	UTSA vs TEM 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-16.5	51–27	W	O56
Close	CONN vs BALL 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-21	31–25	L	O53.5
Close	CONN vs MASS 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest	-15	27–10	W	U39.75
Close	USA vs CMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-16	30–34	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS LWLLW	2-5	29%	1-2	2-4
CMU LWWLW	4-3	57%	2-0	2-1

Venue/role: MASS away, as underdog; CMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS OUUUO	4-3	57%	0-7
CMU OOUOU	4-3	57%	4-3

Went over in Q3. Of 435 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASS	0-10 0%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
CMU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−14.6 →−24.4▼ 9.8#136

CMU−14.4 →−10.6▲ 3.8#108

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MASS

Longer bar = better

CMU

#135

Offense

CMU better ▶

#91

#120

Defense

CMU better ▶

#81

−0.1 #82

Turnovers

CMU better ▶

+0.9 #17

62 plays #116

Pace

Even

62 plays #117

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: CMU defense

	MASS off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	11.3 #137	25.6 #80	CMU
Yards / play	3.98 #137	5.81 #101	CMU
PPA / play	−0.07 #133	+0.07 #57	CMU
Success rate	35% #134	43% #85	CMU

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: CMU offense

	CMU off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	22.6 #102	35.6 #129	CMU
Yards / play	5.28 #103	5.95 #111	Even
PPA / play	+0.18 #47	+0.21 #120	CMU
Success rate	40% #110	47% #121	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MASS scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	3.6 #121	5.9 #109	9.4 #120	1.4 #136	0.4 #136	1.9 #136
CMU allowed	3.9 #38	9.7 #110	13.6 #81	7.0 #107	5.0 #38	12.0 #73

CMU scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	5.9 #73	9.7 #50	15.6 #63	4.9 #94	2.1 #135	7.0 #132
MASS allowed	8.3 #122	9.9 #111	18.1 #123	10.9 #134	6.6 #72	17.4 #129

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.