Ball State @ UConn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at UConn

Weather at kickoff69°F2 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Ball State

1-2 · Power #133

final

Final

UConn

1-2 · Power #87

▲ winner

Closing spread

CONN -20.5

✓ BALL W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 17–37 CONN

✓ CONN (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -20.5

CloseCONN -20.5

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCONN -20.5

no move

CloseCONN -20.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

▲ 2

Close53.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CONN -20.5 · unchangedmodel CONN -21.5

model CONN -21.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 48% (81 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCONN -20.5

CloseCONN -20.5

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CONN as a 20.5-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: CONN won 31–25; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 53.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Below normal · usually 90%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 13 against an average line of 20; 61 points a game (usually 54.9). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JXST vs NMSU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-21	54–13	W	O58.5
Close	JMU vs BALL 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-22	63–7	W	O56.5
Close	WKU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread	-19	44–17	W	O55.5
Close	FRES vs UNM 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest	-22.5	17–25	L	U58.5
Close	SJSU vs HAW 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-15.25	27–14	L	U58
Close	ASU vs EMU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-20.5	21–30	L	U56.5
Close	TROY vs USM 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest	-17.5	52–20	W	O49
Close	GT vs BGSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-22	27–38	L	O51.5
Close	UTSA vs TEM 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-16.5	51–27	W	O56
Close	LIB vs NMSU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-24	14–49	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL LWW	2-1	67%	1-1	1-1
CONN WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; CONN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL UUO	1-2	33%	1-2
CONN OUO	2-1	67%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 448 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALL	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
CONN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−15.8 →−21.3▼ 5.5#134

CONN−4.2 →−4.3▼ 0.1#82

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

BALL

Longer bar = better

CONN

#128

Offense

CONN better ▶

#27

#126

Defense

CONN better ▶

#101

−0.7 #101

Turnovers

CONN better ▶

+0.7 #35

51 plays #136

Pace

CONN faster ▶

73 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: CONN defense

	BALL off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	12.3 #131	28.0 #102	CONN
Yards / play	4.50 #129	5.49 #90	CONN
PPA / play	−0.02 #126	+0.18 #107	Even
Success rate	35% #127	45% #105	CONN

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: CONN offense

	CONN off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #32	34.0 #121	CONN
Yards / play	7.17 #22	6.43 #121	CONN
PPA / play	+0.35 #23	+0.32 #130	CONN
Success rate	51% #30	51% #131	CONN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 123 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	4.7 #81	4.7 #104	9.3 #102	3.0 #103	0.0 #120	3.0 #121
CONN allowed	7.0 #93	7.7 #70	14.7 #86	3.3 #36	5.7 #57	9.0 #46

CONN scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	8.0 #40	16.3 #12	24.3 #17	6.7 #63	8.0 #48	14.7 #54
BALL allowed	14.0 #120	7.0 #64	21.0 #115	5.7 #78	7.3 #83	13.0 #84

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.