Louisiana @ Eastern Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2025)

Sat, Sep 20, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Eastern Michigan

Weather at kickoff77°F9 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

1-2 · Power #114

final

Final

Eastern Michigan

0-3 · Power #123

▲ winner

Closing spread

UL -1.5

✓ EMU W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 28–26 EMU

✗ UL (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -2.5

CloseUL -1.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUL -2.5

1 → EMU

CloseUL -1.5

1 pt toward Eastern Michigan

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UL -2.5 · closed UL -1.5 · moved 1 toward EMUmodel UL -4.5

model UL -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 50% (117 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (186 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -2.5

CloseUL -1.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as a 1.5-point road favorite at EMU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: EMU won 34–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 51.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.3 against an average line of 2.7; 56.3 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USU @ CONN 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-4.5	34–33	L	O51
Close	EMU @ AKR 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	21–25	L	U50.5
Close	BUFF @ AKR 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-1	41–30	W	O48
Close	UTEP @ CLT 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	41–35	W	O56
Close	USM @ ULM 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	20–10	W	U50
Close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Close	USA @ OHIO 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	20–27	L	U55.5
Close	UTSA @ ARMY 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-2	41–38	W	O54
Close	NIU @ WMU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-0.5	24–21	W	U49
Close	WAKE @ STAN 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	27–24	P	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL LWL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1
EMU LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: UL away, as favorite; EMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL UUO	1-2	33%	1-2
EMU OUO	2-1	67%	0-3

Went over in Q4. Of 497 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
EMU	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL−2.6 →−8.5▼ 5.9#102

EMU−11.0 →−15.8▼ 4.8#126

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

EMU

#119

Offense

EMU better ▶

#83

#94

Defense

◀ UL better

#135

+0.3 #64

Turnovers

◀ UL better

−0.3 #89

54 plays #133

Pace

EMU faster ▶

65 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Even matchup

	UL off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #115	42.7 #136	UL
Yards / play	4.70 #123	7.81 #136	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #112	+0.43 #137	UL
Success rate	35% #125	50% #129	Even

When EMU has the ball

Even matchup

	EMU off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #89	25.3 #91	Even
Yards / play	5.99 #63	5.32 #77	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #82	+0.10 #83	Even
Success rate	41% #97	48% #125	EMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 123 FBS teams

UL scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	3.3 #99	7.7 #75	11.0 #92	2.0 #115	5.7 #74	7.7 #105
EMU allowed	11.7 #118	10.3 #103	22.0 #118	8.0 #104	12.7 #119	20.7 #119

EMU scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	3.0 #106	11.3 #37	14.3 #71	0.0 #120	10.0 #26	10.0 #88
UL allowed	7.0 #93	12.7 #118	19.7 #109	3.3 #36	2.3 #18	5.7 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.