Marshall @ Louisiana: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2025)

Sat, Sep 27, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Louisiana · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F7 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Marshall

2-2 · Power #88

final

Final

Louisiana

1-3 · Power #114

▲ winner

Closing spread

MRSH -1.5

✓ UL W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 105 pts

Model before kickoff

MRSH 25–24 UL

✗ MRSH (53%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -2.5

CloseMRSH -1.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUL -2.5

4 → MRSH

CloseMRSH -1.5

4 pts toward Marshall

Total

Open46.5

▲ 2

Close48.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UL -2.5 · closed MRSH -1.5 · moved 4 toward MRSHmodel UL -1.5

model UL -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 50% (123 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 41% (123 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUL -2.5

CloseMRSH -1.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MRSH as a 1.5-point road favorite at UL, the favorite won 9, covered 9, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: UL won 54–51 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 105 points went over 48.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 56%

Favorite covered

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 52%

Wins above normal, covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 15.2 against an average line of 2.4; 61.6 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WMU @ BUFF 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	48–41	W	O49.5
Very close	BUFF @ BGSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	38–7	W	U55.75
Very close	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & total	-2.5	37–21	W	O52
Very close	CSU @ NEV 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2	38–21	W	O45.5
Close	NMSU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	28–7	W	U49
Close	SJSU @ WYO 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	33–16	W	O42.5
Close	WMU @ EMU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	45–21	W	O49.5
Close	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5
Close	CLT @ FAU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-3	39–27	W	O49.5
Close	MINN @ PUR 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-1.5	30–49	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRSH WLWW	3-1	75%	2-0	2-1
UL LWLL	1-3	25%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: MRSH away, as favorite; UL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRSH OUUO	2-2	50%	2-2
UL UUOO	2-2	50%	1-3

Went over in Q3. Of 466 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRSH	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
UL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MRSH 1–0 UL MRSH leads · 1 game since 2023 · MRSH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 7 2024	Marshall 31 @ Louisiana 3	UL -4.5	MRSH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MRSH−1.7 →−9.1▼ 7.4#105

UL−2.6 →−10.6▼ 8.0#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MRSH

Longer bar = better

#90

Offense

◀ MRSH better

#106

#87

Defense

Even

#100

0.0 #75

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #79

63 plays #114

Pace

◀ MRSH faster

57 plays #134

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MRSH has the ball

Even matchup

	MRSH off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #81	27.5 #101	Even
Yards / play	5.20 #107	5.51 #78	UL
PPA / play	+0.12 #82	+0.13 #90	Even
Success rate	41% #91	49% #130	MRSH

When UL has the ball

Even matchup

	UL off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #104	25.3 #80	MRSH
Yards / play	5.29 #103	5.84 #99	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #91	+0.20 #108	Even
Success rate	37% #126	40% #59	MRSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MRSH scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	9.5 #24	7.8 #87	17.3 #51	2.5 #126	7.0 #64	9.5 #109
UL allowed	7.0 #103	13.0 #130	20.0 #126	2.5 #22	5.0 #51	7.5 #24

UL scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	4.3 #103	8.3 #76	12.5 #93	3.3 #119	6.0 #83	9.3 #111
MRSH allowed	7.0 #103	5.8 #47	12.8 #80	9.0 #126	3.5 #24	12.5 #91

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.