Louisiana @ James Madison: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Sat, Oct 11, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at James Madison · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F1 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

2-3 · Power #114

final

Final

James Madison

4-1 · Power #28

▲ winner

Closing spread

JMU -18.5

✓ UL W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 15–33 JMU

✓ JMU (91%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -16.5

CloseJMU -18.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -16.5

2 → JMU

CloseJMU -18.5

2 pts toward James Madison

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JMU -16.5 · closed JMU -18.5 · moved 2 toward JMUmodel JMU -20.5

model JMU -20.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 52% (92 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (182 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -16.5

CloseJMU -18.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as an 18.5-point home favorite against UL, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 24–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 45.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16 against an average line of 17.5; 52 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs EMU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-19.5	49–23	W	O45.5
Very close	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-19.5	30–27	L	O48
Very close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Very close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Very close	TROY vs UL 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & total	-15.5	31–24	L	O47.5
Close	DUKE vs CONN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & season form	-17	26–21	L	O46.5
Close	MINN vs NEV 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-17	27–0	W	U44
Close	BOIS vs USU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-16.5	42–23	W	O52
Close	MIA vs UVA 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & total	-18.5	29–26	L	O48
Close	SJSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-16.5	24–13	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL LWLLW	2-3	40%	0-2	1-1
JMU WWWWL	4-1	80%	2-0	3-1

Venue/role: UL away, as underdog; JMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL UUOOO	3-2	60%	2-3
JMU OUUUU	1-4	20%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
JMU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL−2.6 →−12.0▼ 9.4#112

JMU−2.2 →+3.0▲ 5.2#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

JMU

#94

Offense

JMU better ▶

#75

#115

Defense

JMU better ▶

−0.2 #90

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #88

61 plays #126

Pace

JMU faster ▶

71 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	UL off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #72	13.6 #13	JMU
Yards / play	5.52 #83	3.92 #4	JMU
PPA / play	+0.08 #98	−0.07 #15	JMU
Success rate	39% #121	29% #4	JMU

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #75	32.2 #124	JMU
Yards / play	5.41 #92	5.70 #89	Even
PPA / play	+0.14 #73	+0.19 #111	JMU
Success rate	44% #59	50% #135	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UL scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	4.0 #110	9.4 #64	13.4 #88	3.2 #121	9.0 #33	12.2 #80
JMU allowed	2.0 #14	4.6 #23	6.6 #13	4.2 #50	2.8 #12	7.0 #16

JMU scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	6.2 #68	7.0 #95	13.2 #89	7.6 #42	7.0 #67	14.6 #52
UL allowed	6.2 #92	13.2 #134	19.4 #129	5.4 #80	5.4 #50	10.8 #60

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.