Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2025)

Thu, Oct 9, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Sam Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff87°F5 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Jacksonville State

2-3 · Power #101

▲ winner

Final

Sam Houston

0-5 · Power #135

final

Closing spread

JXST -7.5

✓ SHSU W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

JXST 32–24 SHSU

✓ JXST (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -9.5

CloseJXST -7.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJXST -9.5

2 → SHSU

CloseJXST -7.5

2 pts toward Sam Houston

Total

Open55.5

▼ 3

Close52.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JXST -9.5 · closed JXST -7.5 · moved 2 toward SHSUmodel JXST -7

model JXST -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 53% (118 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (156 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -9.5

CloseJXST -7.5

Total55.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 7.5-point road favorite at SHSU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 29–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 52.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 7.8; 54 points a game (usually 53.4). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNLV @ NEV 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	45–27	W	O51.5
Close	USU @ CONN 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-4.5	34–33	L	O51
Close	BUFF @ KENT 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	24–6	W	U44
Close	USU @ HAW 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-10.5	41–34	L	O55
Close	M-OH @ BGSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings	-7	13–17	L	U45
Close	CSU @ AFA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-6	21–13	W	U44
Close	CSU @ HAW 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation	-5.5	24–27	L	U53.75
Close	UNLV @ HAW 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & total	-11	25–31	L	U56.5
Close	WKU @ UTEP 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	21–13	L	U54
Close	UTSA @ TLSA 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-9.5	45–46	L	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JXST WWLLL	2-3	40%	1-2	0-1
SHSU LLLLL	0-5	0%	0-1	0-4

Venue/role: JXST away, as favorite; SHSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JXST UOOUO	3-2	60%	2-3
SHSU OUOOU	3-2	60%	0-5

Went over in Q4. Of 516 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JXST	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
SHSU	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

JXST 2–0 SHSU JXST leads · 2 games since 2023 · JXST has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2024	Sam Houston 11 @ Jacksonville State 21	JXST -5.5	JXST W
Sep 28 2023	Jacksonville State 35 @ Sam Houston 28	JXST -7	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JXST−5.1 →−9.8▼ 4.7#104

SHSU−8.0 →−18.4▼ 10.4#130

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

JXST

Longer bar = better

SHSU

#62

Offense

◀ JXST better

#132

#104

Defense

◀ JXST better

#128

0.0 #69

Turnovers

◀ JXST better

−0.2 #91

71 plays #23

Pace

◀ JXST faster

61 plays #122

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JXST has the ball

Advantage: JXST offense

	JXST off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.6 #62	41.6 #136	JXST
Yards / play	5.70 #75	6.62 #131	JXST
PPA / play	+0.16 #58	+0.22 #121	JXST
Success rate	45% #51	47% #123	JXST

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: JXST defense

	SHSU off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #133	26.8 #94	JXST
Yards / play	4.49 #132	5.78 #95	JXST
PPA / play	−0.11 #136	+0.18 #110	JXST
Success rate	38% #125	45% #116	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

JXST scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	6.2 #69	7.4 #90	13.6 #84	8.4 #32	7.6 #58	16.0 #34
SHSU allowed	8.4 #120	12.0 #127	20.4 #131	8.8 #127	12.4 #135	21.2 #134

SHSU scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	2.6 #127	2.6 #134	5.2 #133	5.6 #73	4.2 #114	9.8 #108
JXST allowed	8.2 #118	4.8 #26	13.0 #83	4.8 #69	9.0 #121	13.8 #109

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.