UTEP @ Sam Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Wed, Oct 15, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Sam Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff85°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

UTEP

1-5 · Power #131

▲ winner

Final

Sam Houston

0-6 · Power #135

final

Closing spread

UTEP -3.5

✓ UTEP W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

UTEP 26–23 SHSU

✓ UTEP (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTEP -1.5

CloseUTEP -3.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTEP -1.5

2 → UTEP

CloseUTEP -3.5

2 pts toward UTEP

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTEP -1.5 · closed UTEP -3.5 · moved 2 toward UTEPmodel UTEP -0.5

model UTEP -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 49% (183 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (86 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTEP -1.5

CloseUTEP -3.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTEP as a 3.5-point road favorite at SHSU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: UTEP won 35–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 52 points went over 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 3.8; 53 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU @ EMU 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & total	-1.5	10–16	L	U48.5
Very close	CMU @ BALL 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5	17–24	L	U42
Very close	BUFF @ AKR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-1	41–30	W	O48
Very close	FIU @ UTEP 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & rest	-7	21–30	L	O47
Very close	MOST @ MTSU 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-3	22–20	L	U51.5
Very close	MRSH @ MTSU 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	42–28	W	O46.5
Very close	CLT @ FAU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	39–27	W	O49.5
Very close	UL @ EMU 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	31–34	L	O51.5
Very close	NEV @ HAW 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & situation	-6.25	16–31	L	U51.5
Close	AFA @ SDSU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-6	31–20	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTEP WWLLL	2-4	33%	1-1	1-1
SHSU LLLLW	1-5	17%	1-1	1-4

Venue/role: UTEP away, as favorite; SHSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTEP OUOUU	2-4	33%	1-5
SHSU UOOUO	4-2	67%	0-6

Went over in Q4. Of 457 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTEP	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
SHSU	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UTEP 4–1 SHSU UTEP leads · 5 games since 1990 · UTEP has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 3 2024	Sam Houston 41 @ UTEP 21	SHSU -9.5	SHSU W
Oct 25 2023	UTEP 37 @ Sam Houston 34	SHSU -4	UTEP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTEP−15.9 →−15.5▲ 0.4#123

SHSU−8.0 →−19.0▼ 11.0#130

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

UTEP

Longer bar = better

SHSU

#129

Offense

Even

#127

#44

Defense

◀ UTEP better

#125

−1.2 #131

Turnovers

SHSU better ▶

−0.2 #91

65 plays #98

Pace

◀ UTEP faster

60 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTEP has the ball

Even matchup

	UTEP off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #121	39.5 #134	Even
Yards / play	4.89 #122	6.55 #129	Even
PPA / play	−0.16 #137	+0.21 #118	Even
Success rate	32% #136	46% #119	Even

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: UTEP defense

	SHSU off	UTEP def	Edge
Points / game	17.0 #128	25.3 #74	UTEP
Yards / play	4.64 #131	4.94 #35	UTEP
PPA / play	−0.07 #133	0.00 #29	UTEP
Success rate	39% #115	39% #36	UTEP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UTEP scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTEP scored	3.5 #117	4.5 #120	8.0 #126	2.8 #127	7.8 #54	10.7 #97
SHSU allowed	8.2 #119	11.7 #125	19.8 #131	7.3 #114	12.3 #135	19.7 #134

SHSU scoring against the UTEP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	2.2 #131	4.5 #120	6.7 #129	5.8 #69	4.5 #109	10.3 #102
UTEP allowed	7.5 #111	6.7 #54	14.2 #89	5.5 #78	5.7 #54	11.2 #60

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.