Louisville @ Miami: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Fri, Oct 17, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Miami · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F6 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Louisville

4-1 · Power #25

▲ winner

Final

Miami

5-0 · Power #6

final

Closing spread

MIA -10.5

✓ LOU W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

LOU 21–32 MIA

✗ MIA (79%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -13.5

CloseMIA -10.5

Total54.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -13.5

3 → LOU

CloseMIA -10.5

3 pts toward Louisville

Total

Open54.5

▼ 5

Close49.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -13.5 · closed MIA -10.5 · moved 3 toward LOUmodel MIA -13.5

model MIA -13.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 41% (118 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (165 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -13.5

CloseMIA -10.5

Total54.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 10.5-point home favorite against LOU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: LOU won 24–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.3 against an average line of 9.4; 51.7 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ALA vs AUB 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & season form	-11	28–14	W	U51
Close	UTAH vs ARIZ 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	10–23	L	U47
Close	MICH vs PSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-7	41–17	W	O48.75
Close	PSU vs SMU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	38–10	W	U52.5
Close	TULN vs MEM 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	24–34	L	O54.5
Loose	JMU vs MRSH 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & spread	-9.5	12–26	L	U48.5
Loose	SMU vs CAL 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation & season form	-12.5	38–6	W	U54.5
Loose	LOU vs SMU 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & season form	-6.5	27–34	L	O55
Loose	UTAH vs ORST 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-10.5	42–16	W	O54
Loose	KSU vs ISU 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread & situation	-9.5	35–42	L	O46.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LOU LLLWL	1-4	20%	1-0	—
MIA WLWWW	4-1	80%	3-1	3-1

Venue/role: LOU away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU OUOOU	3-2	60%	4-1
MIA OUOUU	2-3	40%	5-0

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
MIA	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

LOU 1–1 MIA Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · MIA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	Miami 52 @ Louisville 45	MIA -4.5	MIA W
Nov 18 2023	Louisville 38 @ Miami 31	Pick’em	LOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+11.2 →+10.8▼ 0.4#28

MIA+18.0 →+20.9▲ 2.9#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

LOU

Longer bar = better

MIA

#53

Offense

MIA better ▶

#28

#18

Defense

Even

#13

+0.2 #56

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

+1.2 #5

68 plays #45

Pace

Even

67 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	LOU off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #29	13.6 #9	Even
Yards / play	5.91 #60	4.43 #17	MIA
PPA / play	+0.15 #67	−0.07 #11	MIA
Success rate	44% #56	36% #15	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #35	21.0 #49	Even
Yards / play	6.35 #36	4.38 #15	LOU
PPA / play	+0.26 #28	−0.18 #2	LOU
Success rate	51% #12	32% #6	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	7.0 #53	12.8 #17	19.8 #26	5.4 #84	10.2 #20	15.6 #37
MIA allowed	1.2 #7	2.6 #7	3.8 #3	1.4 #6	8.4 #114	9.8 #44

MIA scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	8.4 #29	11.0 #37	19.4 #30	7.0 #51	8.6 #43	15.6 #37
LOU allowed	6.8 #102	4.8 #21	11.6 #62	3.4 #34	4.8 #35	8.2 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.