UConn @ Boston College: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Boston College

Weather at kickoff56°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

UConn

4-2 · Power #87

▲ winner

Final

Boston College

1-5 · Power #84

final

Closing spread

CONN -2.5

✓ CONN W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

CONN 29–28 BC

✓ CONN (54%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBC -1.5

CloseCONN -2.5

Total56.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBC -1.5

4 → CONN

CloseCONN -2.5

4 pts toward UConn

Total

Open56.5

▲ 2

Close58.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BC -1.5 · closed CONN -2.5 · moved 4 toward CONNmodel BC -2.5

model BC -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 47% (205 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (131 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBC -1.5

CloseCONN -2.5

Total56.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CONN as a 2.5-point road favorite at BC, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CONN won 38–23; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 58.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.2 against an average line of 3.2; 59 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LIB @ WKU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-4	42–29	W	O61.5
Close	UL @ CCU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & total	-6.5	34–24	W	O57
Close	JXST @ WKU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total & team ratings	-0.5	17–19	L	U62.5
Close	NAVY @ USF 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-4.5	28–7	W	U58.5
Close	ASU @ OKST 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-5	42–21	W	O57
Close	TTU @ BAY 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & season form	-2.5	39–14	W	U59.5
Close	USM @ GASO 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-3	38–35	P	O60
Close	BAY @ WVU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-2	49–35	W	O60
Close	TOL @ WKU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	21–26	L	U60.5
Close	USU @ HAW 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	26–44	L	O57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CONN WLLWW	4-2	67%	2-1	3-2
BC WLLLL	2-4	33%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: CONN away, as favorite; BC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CONN UOOUO	4-2	67%	4-2
BC OOUOU	4-2	67%	1-5

Went over in Q4. Of 371 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CONN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
BC	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CONN 0–1 BC BC leads · 1 game since 2023 · BC has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	UConn 14 @ Boston College 21	BC -14.5	CONN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CONN−4.2 →−3.9▲ 0.3#80

BC+1.8 →−4.0▼ 5.8#81

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CONN

Longer bar = better

#26

Offense

◀ CONN better

#70

#73

Defense

◀ CONN better

#91

+1.2 #5

Turnovers

◀ CONN better

−0.8 #122

70 plays #38

Pace

◀ CONN faster

65 plays #99

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CONN has the ball

Advantage: CONN offense

	CONN off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #22	33.2 #127	CONN
Yards / play	6.77 #20	5.49 #69	CONN
PPA / play	+0.32 #14	+0.16 #102	CONN
Success rate	45% #47	41% #66	Even

When BC has the ball

Even matchup

	BC off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #75	22.7 #59	Even
Yards / play	5.70 #74	5.28 #54	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #56	+0.10 #70	Even
Success rate	43% #74	45% #110	BC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

CONN scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	8.0 #37	11.5 #27	19.5 #28	9.0 #21	8.0 #47	17.0 #25
BC allowed	7.2 #109	12.2 #131	19.3 #129	5.2 #71	6.2 #62	11.3 #63

BC scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	5.2 #84	9.7 #53	14.8 #72	4.5 #96	6.3 #74	10.8 #97
CONN allowed	3.5 #36	6.7 #56	10.2 #43	2.7 #18	7.7 #96	10.3 #50

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.