Arizona @ Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F8 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Arizona

4-2 · Power #26

final

Final

Houston

5-1 · Power #49

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARIZ -2.5

✓ HOU W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

ARIZ 24–22 HOU

✗ ARIZ (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -1.5

CloseARIZ -2.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -1.5

4 → ARIZ

CloseARIZ -2.5

4 pts toward Arizona

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -1.5 · closed ARIZ -2.5 · moved 4 toward ARIZmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 47% (205 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (131 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -1.5

CloseARIZ -2.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARIZ as a 2.5-point road favorite at HOU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 31–28 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.7 against an average line of 2.8; 51.9 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 5 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	APP @ MRSH 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-2	21–28	L	O47.5
Very close	UK @ FLA 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	20–48	L	O42.5
Very close	JMU @ MRSH 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-5	20–9	W	U49.25
Very close	MINN @ ILL 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	25–17	W	U47
Close	TA&M @ AUB 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	41–43	L	O47
Close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	6–20	L	U44
Close	SC @ OU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-1	35–9	W	O40.5
Close	UNC @ DUKE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	20–21	L	U55.5
Close	MD @ RUTG 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2	42–24	W	O45.5
Close	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARIZ WWLWL	4-2	67%	0-1	3-0
HOU WWLLW	4-2	67%	2-1	0-1

Venue/role: ARIZ away, as favorite; HOU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARIZ UUOUO	2-4	33%	4-2
HOU OOOUO	4-2	67%	5-1

Went over in Q4. Of 458 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARIZ	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
HOU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ARIZ 1–0 HOU ARIZ leads · 1 game since 2023 · ARIZ has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 15 2024	Houston 3 @ Arizona 27	ARIZ -1.5	ARIZ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARIZ−2.1 →+5.6▲ 7.7#48

HOU−1.8 →+2.2▲ 4.0#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

ARIZ

Longer bar = better

HOU

#76

Offense

◀ ARIZ better

#100

#15

Defense

Even

#20

+0.8 #26

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #39

72 plays #24

Pace

◀ ARIZ faster

68 plays #48

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	ARIZ off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	32.2 #51	17.5 #23	HOU
Yards / play	5.90 #60	4.54 #18	HOU
PPA / play	+0.12 #86	−0.05 #20	HOU
Success rate	40% #105	36% #19	HOU

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ defense

	HOU off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #68	18.5 #28	ARIZ
Yards / play	5.54 #85	4.22 #9	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.03 #116	−0.10 #9	ARIZ
Success rate	36% #129	34% #12	ARIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ARIZ scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	9.8 #15	9.5 #58	19.3 #29	8.7 #25	3.7 #118	12.3 #78
HOU allowed	4.8 #65	6.2 #49	11.0 #54	1.0 #3	5.5 #49	6.5 #11

HOU scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	5.0 #90	9.2 #63	14.2 #79	6.0 #66	8.5 #43	14.5 #50
ARIZ allowed	5.2 #69	3.3 #9	8.5 #27	4.7 #57	3.8 #19	8.5 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.