Utah @ BYU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at BYU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F1 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Utah

5-1 · Power #8

final

Final

BYU

6-0 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

UTAH -5.5

✓ BYU W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

UTAH 27–22 BYU

✗ UTAH (63%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -3.5

CloseUTAH -5.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUTAH -3.5

2 → UTAH

CloseUTAH -5.5

2 pts toward Utah

Total

Open47.5

▲ 2

Close49.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UTAH -3.5 · closed UTAH -5.5 · moved 2 toward UTAHmodel UTAH -1

model UTAH -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 50% (127 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (196 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUTAH -3.5

CloseUTAH -5.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UTAH as a 5.5-point road favorite at BYU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BYU won 24–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 4.9 against an average line of 5.2; 54.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEB @ MD 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	34–31	L	O47.5
Very close	KSU @ BYU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	9–38	L	U49.5
Very close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Very close	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	20–33	L	U54
Close	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Close	TULN @ ARMY 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & spread	-5	14–35	L	O46.5
Close	ND @ USC 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-7	49–35	W	O52.5
Close	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	16–31	L	U53
Close	ALA @ TENN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	17–24	L	U57.5
Close	BYU @ ARIZ 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	33–27	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTAH WWLWW	5-1	83%	3-0	5-1
BYU WWLLW	4-2	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: UTAH away, as favorite; BYU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTAH OUUOO	4-2	67%	5-1
BYU UUUOO	3-3	50%	6-0

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 28. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTAH	6-4 60%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
BYU	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UTAH 0–1 BYU BYU leads · 1 game since 2023 · BYU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	BYU 22 @ Utah 21	BYU -3.5	UTAH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UTAH+4.1 →+16.0▲ 11.9#14

BYU+7.8 →+12.7▲ 4.9#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

UTAH

Longer bar = better

BYU

#19

Offense

Even

#23

#14

Defense

Even

#13

+0.2 #59

Turnovers

BYU better ▶

+0.7 #32

73 plays #15

Pace

◀ UTAH faster

68 plays #56

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UTAH has the ball

Even matchup

	UTAH off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	39.5 #11	14.7 #12	Even
Yards / play	6.27 #42	4.23 #8	BYU
PPA / play	+0.29 #16	−0.06 #11	Even
Success rate	52% #7	37% #21	Even

When BYU has the ball

Even matchup

	BYU off	UTAH def	Edge
Points / game	37.5 #16	13.8 #6	Even
Yards / play	6.62 #25	4.72 #23	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #26	−0.05 #15	Even
Success rate	48% #26	34% #11	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

UTAH scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UTAH scored	8.5 #26	10.3 #41	18.8 #31	11.0 #6	9.7 #20	20.7 #5
BYU allowed	4.0 #41	3.3 #9	7.3 #14	2.8 #16	4.0 #24	6.8 #13

BYU scoring against the UTAH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	9.0 #17	12.3 #15	21.3 #14	5.5 #79	9.2 #27	14.7 #48
UTAH allowed	2.2 #15	2.2 #4	4.3 #3	2.8 #16	6.7 #69	9.5 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.