Missouri @ Auburn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2025)

Sat, Oct 18, 2025, 7:45 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Auburn · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F9 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Missouri

5-1 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

Auburn

3-3 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

MIZ -1.5

✓ MIZ W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

MIZ 25–23 AUB

✓ MIZ (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAUB -2.5

CloseMIZ -1.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAUB -2.5

4 → MIZ

CloseMIZ -1.5

4 pts toward Missouri

Total

Open44.5

▼ 1

Close43.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AUB -2.5 · closed MIZ -1.5 · moved 4 toward MIZmodel MIZ -2.5

model MIZ -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 48% (143 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 43% (134 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAUB -2.5

CloseMIZ -1.5

Total44.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIZ as a 1.5-point road favorite at AUB, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 23–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 43.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.5 against an average line of 3.1; 52.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ORE @ UTAH 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	35–6	W	U47.5
Close	SC @ OU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-1	35–9	W	O40.5
Close	TULN @ CIN 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-1	27–24	W	O44
Close	ND @ CLEM 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-3	23–31	L	O44.5
Close	TA&M @ AUB 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	41–43	L	O47
Close	MIA @ NCSU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-6	6–20	L	U44
Close	UK @ FLA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	20–48	L	O42.5
Close	MINN @ WIS 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	24–7	W	U40.5
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Close	BYU @ ARIZ 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	33–27	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIZ WWLLW	4-2	67%	—	3-2
AUB LLLWL	2-4	33%	0-3	2-2

Venue/role: MIZ away, as favorite; AUB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIZ OOOUO	5-1	83%	5-1
AUB UUUUU	1-5	17%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 56% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIZ	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	8-2 80%
AUB	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIZ 1–0 AUB MIZ leads · 1 game since 2023 · MIZ has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	Auburn 17 @ Missouri 21	MIZ -4.5	AUB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIZ+10.7 →+16.6▲ 5.9#13

AUB+11.0 →+12.1▲ 1.1#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MIZ

Longer bar = better

AUB

#13

Offense

◀ MIZ better

#88

#16

Defense

Even

#27

−0.2 #83

Turnovers

AUB better ▶

+0.5 #44

76 plays #5

Pace

◀ MIZ faster

65 plays #89

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	MIZ off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	41.7 #10	17.0 #18	Even
Yards / play	6.72 #21	4.82 #30	Even
PPA / play	+0.30 #17	+0.04 #42	MIZ
Success rate	53% #5	36% #16	Even

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	AUB off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	24.7 #91	16.7 #16	MIZ
Yards / play	5.08 #111	4.11 #6	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.12 #79	+0.01 #35	MIZ
Success rate	43% #71	32% #6	MIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MIZ scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	8.3 #32	13.0 #10	21.3 #14	9.2 #19	11.2 #8	20.3 #6
AUB allowed	2.7 #21	4.8 #20	7.5 #15	4.8 #60	4.7 #36	9.5 #35

AUB scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	6.3 #67	8.5 #77	14.8 #70	4.0 #108	5.8 #85	9.8 #110
MIZ allowed	5.7 #78	5.7 #37	11.3 #53	2.0 #11	3.3 #14	5.3 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.