Missouri @ Vanderbilt: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Vanderbilt · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Missouri

6-1 · Power #18

final

Final

Vanderbilt

6-1 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

VAN -3.5

✓ VAN W

Total

52.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

MIZ 27–30 VAN

✓ VAN (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVAN -2.5

CloseVAN -3.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVAN -2.5

1 → VAN

CloseVAN -3.5

1 pt toward Vanderbilt

Total

Open52.5

no move

Close52.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VAN -2.5 · closed VAN -3.5 · moved 1 toward VANmodel MIZ -1

model MIZ -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 49% (265 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 45% (93 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVAN -2.5

CloseVAN -3.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VAN as a 3.5-point home favorite against MIZ, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: VAN won 17–10; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 52.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.5 against an average line of 2.6; 51.9 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Very close	UCF vs CIN 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	25–21	W	U55.5
Very close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Very close	UNC vs MIA 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	41–31	W	O57
Very close	VAN vs LSU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-1.5	31–24	W	O48.5
Very close	CLEM vs SC 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–17	L	U49
Very close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Very close	ASU vs TCU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	27–24	P	U54.5
Very close	TA&M vs LSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	38–23	W	O54.5
Very close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIZ WLLWW	5-2	71%	1-0	1-0
VAN WWLLW	5-2	71%	3-1	3-1

Venue/role: MIZ away, as underdog; VAN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIZ OOUOU	5-2	71%	6-1
VAN UOOUO	4-3	57%	6-1

Stayed under: it needed 40 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIZ	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
VAN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MIZ 2–0 VAN MIZ leads · 2 games since 2023 · MIZ has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2024	Vanderbilt 27 @ Missouri 30	MIZ -18.5	VAN W
Sep 30 2023	Missouri 38 @ Vanderbilt 21	MIZ -14	MIZ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIZ+10.7 →+16.6▲ 5.9#12

VAN+3.1 →+13.6▲ 10.5#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MIZ

Longer bar = better

VAN

#23

Offense

VAN better ▶

#16

Defense

◀ MIZ better

#61

−0.3 #96

Turnovers

VAN better ▶

+0.6 #32

77 plays #4

Pace

◀ MIZ faster

62 plays #119

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: MIZ offense

	MIZ off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #12	20.0 #33	MIZ
Yards / play	6.31 #37	5.28 #52	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #28	+0.15 #100	MIZ
Success rate	50% #14	41% #57	MIZ

When VAN has the ball

Even matchup

	VAN off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	41.4 #8	16.7 #16	Even
Yards / play	7.35 #7	4.27 #9	Even
PPA / play	+0.46 #1	+0.01 #29	VAN
Success rate	58% #1	34% #8	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MIZ scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	7.6 #41	12.1 #17	19.7 #19	7.9 #31	10.6 #10	18.4 #13
VAN allowed	4.3 #47	7.7 #87	12.0 #65	2.9 #19	5.1 #39	8.0 #20

VAN scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	9.0 #15	13.3 #6	22.3 #9	10.3 #7	8.9 #33	19.1 #11
MIZ allowed	5.9 #82	4.9 #19	10.7 #48	2.7 #17	3.3 #11	6.0 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.