Texas A&M @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Missouri · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F8 mphgusts 14Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Texas A&M

8-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Missouri

6-2 · Power #18

final

Closing spread

TA&M -6.5

✓ TA&M W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

TA&M 29–23 MIZ

✓ TA&M (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -4.5

CloseTA&M -6.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTA&M -4.5

2 → TA&M

CloseTA&M -6.5

2 pts toward Texas A&M

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TA&M -4.5 · closed TA&M -6.5 · moved 2 toward TA&Mmodel TA&M -1.5

model TA&M -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 52% (156 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (218 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -4.5

CloseTA&M -6.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 6.5-point road favorite at MIZ, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TA&M won 38–17; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.6 against an average line of 5; 54.4 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 3 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TEX @ KSU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-3	34–27	W	O54.5
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Close	PSU @ WIS 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	28–13	W	U47
Close	FSU @ SYR 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & total	-7	38–3	W	U51.25
Close	NEB @ MD 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-7	34–31	L	O47.5
Close	MISS @ AUB 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	28–21	W	U55.5
Close	TA&M @ AUB 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	41–43	L	O47
Close	TA&M @ SC 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-3	20–44	L	O43.5
Close	TULN @ MEM 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	31–21	W	U55
Close	SMU @ WAKE 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	12–13	L	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TA&M LWWLW	4-4	50%	2-1	3-4
MIZ LLWWL	5-3	63%	4-2	1-1

Venue/role: TA&M away, as favorite; MIZ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TA&M UUOOO	6-2	75%	8-0
MIZ OUOUU	5-3	63%	6-2

Went over in Q4. Of 537 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TA&M	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
MIZ	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TA&M 11–8 MIZ TA&M leads · 19 games since 1957 · MIZ has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Missouri 10 @ Texas A&M 41	TA&M -2.5	TA&M W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TA&M+14.3 →+20.0▲ 5.7#7

MIZ+10.7 →+16.1▲ 5.4#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

TA&M

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#15

Offense

◀ TA&M better

#29

#45

Defense

MIZ better ▶

#16

−0.1 #85

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #92

69 plays #38

Pace

MIZ faster ▶

77 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TA&M has the ball

Even matchup

	TA&M off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	37.8 #11	16.8 #13	Even
Yards / play	6.69 #21	4.44 #10	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #11	+0.02 #32	TA&M
Success rate	49% #18	33% #7	Even

When MIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	MIZ off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	35.4 #25	23.6 #60	MIZ
Yards / play	6.12 #41	5.10 #37	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #30	+0.09 #69	MIZ
Success rate	48% #20	36% #14	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TA&M scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	8.3 #24	11.1 #28	19.4 #23	9.0 #15	9.4 #22	18.4 #11
MIZ allowed	5.1 #62	4.6 #13	9.8 #32	3.3 #22	3.8 #12	7.0 #9

MIZ scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	6.6 #58	11.0 #29	17.6 #36	6.9 #51	10.1 #9	17.0 #21
TA&M allowed	6.3 #93	6.0 #37	12.3 #67	4.0 #34	7.4 #96	11.4 #61

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.