Auburn @ Vanderbilt: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2025)

Sat, Nov 8, 2025, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Vanderbilt · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Auburn

4-5 · Power #24

final

Final

Vanderbilt

7-2 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

VAN -5.5

✓ VAN W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 83 pts

Model before kickoff

AUB 22–28 VAN

✓ VAN (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVAN -7.5

CloseVAN -5.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVAN -7.5

2 → AUB

CloseVAN -5.5

2 pts toward Auburn

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VAN -7.5 · closed VAN -5.5 · moved 2 toward AUBmodel VAN -5.5 matches the line

model VAN -5.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 55% (174 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 57% (77 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenVAN -7.5

CloseVAN -5.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VAN as a 5.5-point home favorite against AUB, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: VAN won 45–38; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 83 points went over 46.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 771%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11.4 against an average line of 5.2; 53.4 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TA&M vs FLA 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	34–17	W	O48
Very close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Very close	IOWA vs NEB 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	13–10	P	U41.5
Close	CLEM vs SC 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	14–17	L	U49
Close	TCU vs ISU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	62–14	W	O45.75
Close	ASU vs BYU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	28–23	W	O48.5
Close	LSU vs OU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	37–17	W	O48
Close	NEB vs NU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-7	28–21	P	O44.5
Close	ISU vs CIN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	34–17	W	U52.5
Close	FLA vs ARK 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	36–39	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AUB WLLWL	3-6	33%	3-1	3-3
VAN LLWWW	7-2	78%	4-1	4-1

Venue/role: AUB away, as underdog; VAN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AUB UUUOU	2-7	22%	4-5
VAN OUOUO	5-4	56%	7-2

Went over in Q3. Of 458 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AUB	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%
VAN	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

AUB 1–1 VAN Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · VAN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	Vanderbilt 17 @ Auburn 7	AUB -7.5	VAN W
Nov 4 2023	Auburn 31 @ Vanderbilt 15	AUB -12.5	AUB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AUB+11.0 →+11.6▲ 0.6#26

VAN+3.1 →+14.2▲ 11.1#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

AUB

Longer bar = better

VAN

#102

Offense

VAN better ▶

#21

Defense

◀ AUB better

#62

+0.8 #19

Turnovers

◀ AUB better

+0.3 #45

67 plays #61

Pace

◀ AUB faster

60 plays #130

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: VAN defense

	AUB off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #105	20.4 #32	VAN
Yards / play	4.92 #120	5.41 #66	VAN
PPA / play	+0.06 #101	+0.15 #95	Even
Success rate	42% #80	41% #54	VAN

When VAN has the ball

Even matchup

	VAN off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	37.6 #13	17.7 #18	Even
Yards / play	7.17 #9	4.82 #22	Even
PPA / play	+0.40 #1	−0.02 #22	VAN
Success rate	53% #4	37% #21	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

AUB scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	5.8 #76	6.3 #102	12.1 #95	4.1 #108	6.1 #83	10.2 #106
VAN allowed	5.2 #62	7.1 #67	12.3 #69	3.3 #21	4.8 #32	8.1 #17

VAN scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	7.0 #48	11.8 #16	18.8 #26	8.8 #18	10.0 #9	18.8 #9
AUB allowed	2.1 #6	6.7 #57	8.8 #18	4.3 #44	3.9 #17	8.2 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.