Vanderbilt @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F4 mphgusts 13Wet0.2 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Vanderbilt

7-1 · Power #13

final

Final

Texas

6-2 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -3.5

✓ VAN W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

VAN 23–27 TEX

✓ TEX (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -2.5

CloseTEX -3.5

Total45.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -2.5

1 → TEX

CloseTEX -3.5

1 pt toward Texas

Total

Open45.5

▲ 3

Close48.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -2.5 · closed TEX -3.5 · moved 1 toward TEXmodel TEX -5.5

model TEX -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 50% (271 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 46% (95 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -2.5

CloseTEX -3.5

Total45.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 3.5-point home favorite against VAN, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 34–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 48.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 4.6; 45.6 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OU vs MISS 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	26–34	L	O52.5
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	16–10	L	U51.5
Close	CLEM vs SC 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	14–17	L	U49
Close	CLEM vs LOU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	31–16	W	U52
Close	KSU vs OKST 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-6	42–20	W	O58
Close	FLA vs UK 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	16–26	L	U52.75
Close	ISU vs KSU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-2	29–21	W	U51.5
Close	ASU vs TCU 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	27–24	P	U54.5
Close	ASU vs BYU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	28–23	W	O48.5
Close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN WLLWW	6-2	75%	2-1	2-1
TEX WLWLL	2-6	25%	1-2	2-5

Venue/role: VAN away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN OOUOU	4-4	50%	7-1
TEX OOUUO	3-5	38%	6-2

Went over in Q4. Of 522 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VAN	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
TEX	7-3 70%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

VAN 0–1 TEX TEX leads · 1 game since 2023 · TEX has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Texas 27 @ Vanderbilt 24	TEX -16.5	VAN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VAN+3.1 →+13.6▲ 10.5#18

TEX+23.2 →+16.5▼ 6.7#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

VAN

Longer bar = better

TEX

Offense

◀ VAN better

#89

#53

Defense

TEX better ▶

#14

+0.5 #39

Turnovers

TEX better ▶

+0.9 #16

60 plays #131

Pace

TEX faster ▶

67 plays #63

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Even matchup

	VAN off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	38.4 #12	14.6 #10	Even
Yards / play	7.21 #7	4.43 #12	Even
PPA / play	+0.41 #1	−0.08 #9	Even
Success rate	54% #2	38% #24	VAN

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: VAN defense

	TEX off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #68	18.8 #24	VAN
Yards / play	5.61 #76	5.20 #48	VAN
PPA / play	+0.07 #102	+0.13 #89	Even
Success rate	39% #111	40% #51	VAN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

VAN scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	7.9 #34	12.0 #17	19.9 #18	9.9 #9	8.6 #37	18.5 #11
TEX allowed	2.5 #18	5.8 #37	8.3 #18	2.5 #14	3.9 #16	6.4 #8

TEX scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	5.3 #85	7.8 #81	13.0 #92	6.6 #63	8.1 #45	14.8 #47
VAN allowed	3.8 #35	7.1 #72	10.9 #46	2.5 #14	5.4 #47	7.9 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.