South Carolina @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Ole Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F4 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

South Carolina

3-5 · Power #43

final

Final

Ole Miss

7-1 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -13.5

✓ MISS W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

SC 20–34 MISS

✓ MISS (84%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -14.5

CloseMISS -13.5

Total53.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -14.5

1 → SC

CloseMISS -13.5

1 pt toward South Carolina

Total

Open53.5

▲ 3

Close56.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -14.5 · closed MISS -13.5 · moved 1 toward SCmodel MISS -14.5

model MISS -14.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 85%, covered 50% (120 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (264 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMISS -14.5

CloseMISS -13.5

Total53.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 13.5-point home favorite against SC, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 30–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 56.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.6 against an average line of 13.3; 64.4 points a game (usually 54). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USC vs RUTG 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-13.75	42–20	W	O56.25
Very close	CLEM vs SC 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14	30–31	L	O53
Very close	OU vs WVU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-13	59–20	W	O59.5
Close	MISS vs AUB 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-15.5	48–34	L	O55
Close	FSU vs MIA 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	27–20	L	U50.5
Close	WAKE vs SYR 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	45–35	W	O58.5
Close	UCF vs BAY 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	35–36	L	O56
Close	GT vs VT 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-14	35–20	W	U55.5
Close	TCU vs COLO 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-13.5	35–21	W	U57
Close	MD vs ILL 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-13.5	24–27	L	U52

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SC WWLLW	4-4	50%	1-1	2-2
MISS WWLLW	5-3	63%	4-1	4-2

Venue/role: SC away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SC OOUUO	3-5	38%	3-5
MISS UUUOO	5-3	63%	7-1

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 51% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SC	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
MISS	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SC 0–1 MISS MISS leads · 1 game since 2023 · MISS has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Ole Miss 27 @ South Carolina 3	MISS -10.5	MISS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SC+13.9 →+6.7▼ 7.2#43

MISS+19.8 →+16.9▼ 2.9#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

MISS

#123

Offense

MISS better ▶

#23

#50

Defense

◀ SC better

#81

+0.5 #44

Turnovers

◀ SC better

−0.4 #104

62 plays #124

Pace

MISS faster ▶

74 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SC has the ball

Advantage: MISS defense

	SC off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	20.4 #118	23.0 #56	MISS
Yards / play	4.86 #124	5.51 #73	MISS
PPA / play	+0.01 #123	+0.16 #103	Even
Success rate	36% #127	43% #92	MISS

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #19	21.1 #40	MISS
Yards / play	6.53 #24	5.08 #37	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #21	+0.04 #43	MISS
Success rate	47% #28	42% #80	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

SC scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	3.9 #116	8.1 #77	12.0 #101	4.9 #95	3.5 #127	8.4 #126
MISS allowed	4.3 #44	7.6 #79	11.9 #60	5.3 #62	5.9 #54	11.1 #53

MISS scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	5.5 #83	15.3 #2	20.8 #13	7.3 #42	9.0 #25	16.3 #30
SC allowed	4.9 #60	5.8 #36	10.6 #42	4.1 #41	6.4 #68	10.5 #44

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.