Alabama @ South Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at South Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Alabama

6-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

South Carolina

3-4 · Power #43

final

Closing spread

ALA -12.5

✓ SC W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

ALA 30–17 SC

✓ ALA (82%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -13.5

CloseALA -12.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -13.5

1 → SC

CloseALA -12.5

1 pt toward South Carolina

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -13.5 · closed ALA -12.5 · moved 1 toward SCmodel ALA -14.5

model ALA -14.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 43% (68 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (247 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenALA -13.5

CloseALA -12.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 12.5-point road favorite at SC, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 29–22; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 47.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.6 against an average line of 12.6; 48.8 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORE @ MICH 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-14.5	38–17	W	O45.5
Very close	LSU @ TA&M 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-10	23–38	L	O47.5
Very close	TEX @ UK 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-12.5	16–13	L	U45.5
Very close	ALA @ AUB 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-14.5	27–24	L	O48
Very close	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5
Very close	ALA @ OU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-14	3–24	L	U46.5
Very close	PSU @ ILL 2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-14	30–13	W	U47.5
Very close	TENN @ VAN 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-9.5	36–23	W	O47
Very close	ALA @ MSST 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	40–17	W	O46.5
Close	PSU @ MINN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-11	26–25	L	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALA WWWLW	5-2	71%	1-2	4-2
SC LWWLL	3-4	43%	1-3	1-2

Venue/role: ALA away, as favorite; SC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA OUUOU	4-3	57%	6-1
SC UOOUU	2-5	29%	3-4

Went over in Q4. Of 476 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALA	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
SC	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ALA 16–3 SC ALA leads · 19 games since 1937 · ALA has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	South Carolina 25 @ Alabama 27	ALA -19.5	SC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+21.0 →+22.5▲ 1.5#4

SC+13.9 →+6.3▼ 7.6#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

ALA

Longer bar = better

#32

Offense

◀ ALA better

#122

#50

Defense

Even

#48

+1.3 #6

Turnovers

◀ ALA better

+0.6 #37

68 plays #55

Pace

◀ ALA faster

61 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	35.1 #34	20.0 #36	Even
Yards / play	6.23 #45	5.10 #39	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #17	+0.03 #36	Even
Success rate	47% #31	42% #81	ALA

When SC has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	SC off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	20.1 #116	17.7 #22	ALA
Yards / play	4.88 #123	5.36 #57	ALA
PPA / play	+0.01 #120	+0.06 #48	ALA
Success rate	36% #130	42% #73	ALA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ALA scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	8.0 #33	13.1 #9	21.1 #14	6.1 #68	7.9 #50	14.0 #52
SC allowed	4.6 #58	5.6 #35	10.1 #39	4.7 #56	5.1 #39	9.9 #41

SC scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	4.0 #114	8.9 #64	12.9 #92	4.3 #109	3.0 #130	7.3 #131
ALA allowed	3.0 #26	5.9 #40	8.9 #25	4.9 #59	4.0 #20	8.9 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.