Texas A&M @ LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at LSU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F9 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Texas A&M

7-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

LSU

5-2 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

TA&M -1.5

✓ TA&M W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 74 pts

Model before kickoff

TA&M 26–24 LSU

✓ TA&M (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -2.5

CloseTA&M -1.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTA&M -2.5

1 → LSU

CloseTA&M -1.5

1 pt toward LSU

Total

Open48.5

▲ 1

Close49.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TA&M -2.5 · closed TA&M -1.5 · moved 1 toward LSUmodel TA&M -4

model TA&M -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 49% (147 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (253 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -2.5

CloseTA&M -1.5

Total48.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 1.5-point road favorite at LSU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TA&M won 49–25; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 74 points went over 49.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.7 against an average line of 3.2; 55.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TA&M @ AUB 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	41–43	L	O47
Very close	USC @ WASH 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	21–26	L	U55
Very close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Very close	CLEM @ VT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	24–14	W	U54.5
Very close	MSST @ UK 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	17–27	L	U50.5
Very close	TEX @ TA&M 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	17–7	W	U50
Very close	KSU @ WVU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	45–18	W	O56
Very close	PSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–12	W	O47.5
Very close	ISU @ KU 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	36–45	L	O52.5
Very close	TCU @ BAY 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	29–28	L	U58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TA&M WLWWL	3-4	43%	1-1	2-4
LSU WLLWL	3-4	43%	2-2	1-2

Venue/role: TA&M away, as favorite; LSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TA&M OUUOO	5-2	71%	7-0
LSU UOUUO	2-5	29%	5-2

Went over in Q3. Of 541 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TA&M	7-3 70%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
LSU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TA&M 24–37 LSU (3 tied) LSU leads · 64 games since 1906 · LSU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	LSU 23 @ Texas A&M 38	TA&M -1.5	TA&M W
Nov 25 2023	Texas A&M 30 @ LSU 42	LSU -13	TA&M W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TA&M+14.3 →+18.7▲ 4.4#9

LSU+15.7 →+12.9▼ 2.8#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

TA&M

Longer bar = better

LSU

#23

Offense

◀ TA&M better

#75

#46

Defense

LSU better ▶

#25

+0.1 #66

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #58

70 plays #32

Pace

◀ TA&M faster

63 plays #109

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TA&M has the ball

Even matchup

	TA&M off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.1 #27	14.6 #10	Even
Yards / play	6.66 #24	4.77 #25	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #15	0.00 #25	Even
Success rate	48% #26	39% #40	Even

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: TA&M defense

	LSU off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #87	23.4 #61	TA&M
Yards / play	5.79 #65	5.24 #50	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #71	+0.08 #61	Even
Success rate	43% #78	36% #13	TA&M

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

TA&M scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	7.4 #43	12.7 #9	20.1 #16	7.3 #43	8.7 #37	16.0 #31
LSU allowed	3.3 #30	5.4 #29	8.7 #23	3.4 #31	2.4 #4	5.9 #6

LSU scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	3.9 #119	9.1 #62	13.0 #91	7.0 #46	5.6 #94	12.6 #74
TA&M allowed	6.1 #86	5.3 #27	11.4 #55	4.6 #54	7.4 #91	12.0 #74

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.