Auburn @ Arkansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2025)

Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 12:45 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Arkansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F9 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Auburn

3-4 · Power #24

▲ winner

Final

Arkansas

2-5 · Power #40

final

Closing spread

ARK -2.5

✓ AUB W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

AUB 27–29 ARK

✗ ARK (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARK -1.5

CloseARK -2.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARK -1.5

1 → ARK

CloseARK -2.5

1 pt toward Arkansas

Total

Open55.5

no move

Close55.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARK -1.5 · closed ARK -2.5 · moved 1 toward ARKmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 50% (266 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (210 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARK -1.5

CloseARK -2.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARK as a 2.5-point home favorite against AUB, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: AUB won 33–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 4.7 against an average line of 2.7; 51.1 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNC vs NCST 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-6.5	27–30	L	O56
Very close	BAY vs ASU 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–27	L	U60.5
Very close	TTU vs KSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1	21–38	L	O57.5
Very close	MISS vs MSST 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	22–24	L	U63
Very close	FLA vs LSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	35–45	L	O51.5
Very close	TTU vs BAY 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	17–45	L	O61
Very close	UCF vs CIN 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-1.5	25–21	W	U55.5
Very close	KU vs TTU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	13–16	L	U61.5
Very close	ORST vs WSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	24–10	W	U51.5
Very close	TTU vs UCF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	24–23	L	U59.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AUB LLWLL	2-5	29%	2-1	2-3
ARK LLLWW	3-4	43%	2-2	1-2

Venue/role: AUB away, as underdog; ARK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AUB UUUUU	1-6	14%	3-4
ARK OOOUO	5-2	71%	2-5

Went over in Q4. Of 490 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AUB	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
ARK	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

AUB 1–1 ARK Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · ARK has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2024	Arkansas 24 @ Auburn 14	AUB -2.5	ARK W
Nov 11 2023	Auburn 48 @ Arkansas 10	ARK -2.5	AUB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AUB+11.0 →+12.0▲ 1.0#23

ARK+8.7 →+9.5▲ 0.8#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

AUB

Longer bar = better

ARK

#95

Offense

ARK better ▶

#25

Defense

◀ AUB better

#130

+0.6 #35

Turnovers

◀ AUB better

−0.7 #120

66 plays #81

Pace

ARK faster ▶

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: AUB offense

	AUB off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #97	32.7 #123	AUB
Yards / play	5.08 #110	6.49 #126	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #93	+0.35 #136	AUB
Success rate	42% #81	51% #136	AUB

When ARK has the ball

Even matchup

	ARK off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	37.1 #18	17.9 #23	Even
Yards / play	7.57 #5	4.69 #21	Even
PPA / play	+0.38 #6	+0.04 #40	ARK
Success rate	52% #7	36% #16	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

AUB scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	6.4 #60	7.3 #87	13.7 #83	4.4 #103	5.4 #94	9.9 #109
ARK allowed	8.4 #123	12.9 #135	21.3 #134	7.1 #109	4.3 #24	11.4 #65

ARK scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	9.7 #14	14.9 #2	24.6 #5	5.4 #76	7.1 #68	12.6 #78
AUB allowed	2.7 #22	5.1 #27	7.9 #16	4.1 #42	5.0 #38	9.1 #34

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.