Mississippi State @ Arkansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2025)

Sat, Nov 1, 2025, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Arkansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff56°F11 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Mississippi State

4-4 · Power #56

▲ winner

Final

Arkansas

2-6 · Power #40

final

Closing spread

ARK -5.5

✓ MSST W

Total

66.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

MSST 29–34 ARK

✗ ARK (65%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARK -3.5

CloseARK -5.5

Total67.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARK -3.5

2 → ARK

CloseARK -5.5

2 pts toward Arkansas

Total

Open67.5

▼ 1

Close66.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARK -3.5 · closed ARK -5.5 · moved 2 toward ARKmodel ARK -5

model ARK -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 56% (168 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (211 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARK -3.5

CloseARK -5.5

Total67.5 → 66.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARK as a 5.5-point home favorite against MSST, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MSST won 38–35 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 66.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.6 against an average line of 4.4; 67.2 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SMU vs HOU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	77–63	W	O66
Very close	TTU vs KU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	43–28	W	O63.5
Very close	SMU vs MEM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & rest	-4.5	34–31	L	U68.5
Very close	BAY vs OKST 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	38–28	W	O64.5
Very close	MISS vs MSST 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	22–24	L	U63
Very close	ARIZ vs TTU 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	22–28	L	U63.5
Very close	KU vs TTU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	13–16	L	U61.5
Very close	TTU vs WVU 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5	48–10	W	U65.5
Very close	TCU vs TTU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-5	35–34	L	O66
Very close	TCU vs BAY 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	42–36	W	O66.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSST WWLWW	6-1	86%	2-1	4-1
ARK LLWWL	3-5	38%	2-3	1-3

Venue/role: MSST away, as underdog; ARK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST UOUUO	3-5	38%	4-4
ARK OOUOO	6-2	75%	2-6

Went over in Q4. Of 69 earlier overs in games with totals 62.5–70.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSST	4-6 40%	7-2 78%	4-6 40%
ARK	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MSST 16–19 ARK (1 tied) ARK leads · 36 games since 1916 · MSST has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Arkansas 58 @ Mississippi State 25	ARK -7.5	ARK W
Oct 21 2023	Mississippi State 7 @ Arkansas 3	ARK -7	MSST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSST+0.7 →+7.3▲ 6.6#40

ARK+8.7 →+9.2▲ 0.5#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

MSST

Longer bar = better

ARK

#54

Offense

ARK better ▶

#11

#64

Defense

◀ MSST better

#129

+0.6 #30

Turnovers

◀ MSST better

−1.0 #127

71 plays #28

Pace

◀ MSST faster

65 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: MSST offense

	MSST off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	32.6 #45	32.8 #121	MSST
Yards / play	5.81 #64	6.35 #126	MSST
PPA / play	+0.14 #61	+0.30 #135	MSST
Success rate	45% #47	50% #135	MSST

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: ARK offense

	ARK off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #25	23.4 #60	ARK
Yards / play	7.55 #3	5.31 #55	ARK
PPA / play	+0.32 #7	+0.09 #64	ARK
Success rate	52% #8	42% #77	ARK

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

MSST scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	9.9 #11	7.3 #89	17.1 #42	6.5 #63	9.0 #24	15.5 #38
ARK allowed	8.3 #118	11.6 #130	19.9 #131	7.0 #104	5.9 #54	12.9 #88

ARK scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	8.5 #22	15.6 #1	24.1 #4	5.1 #91	6.3 #78	11.4 #91
MSST allowed	3.3 #29	6.0 #42	9.3 #26	2.1 #9	10.3 #132	12.4 #81

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.