Arkansas @ LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 12:45 PM ESTWeek 12 · at LSU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F5 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas

2-7 · Power #40

final

Final

LSU

5-4 · Power #31

▲ winner

Closing spread

LSU -4.5

✓ ARK W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

ARK 27–31 LSU

✓ LSU (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLSU -5.5

CloseLSU -4.5

Total55.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLSU -5.5

1 → ARK

CloseLSU -4.5

1 pt toward Arkansas

Total

Open55.5

▲ 3

Close58.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LSU -5.5 · closed LSU -4.5 · moved 1 toward ARKmodel LSU -6

model LSU -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (209 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (282 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLSU -5.5

CloseLSU -4.5

Total55.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 4.5-point home favorite against ARK, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: LSU won 23–22; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 58.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.1 against an average line of 4.5; 55.3 points a game (usually 53). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TTU vs TCU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	35–28	W	O59.5
Close	CLEM vs DUKE 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-4	45–46	L	O55
Close	KSU vs CIN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	41–15	W	O54.5
Close	KU vs TTU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	13–16	L	U61.5
Close	CLEM vs UNC 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-7.5	31–20	W	U59.5
Close	KSU vs OKST 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-6	42–20	W	O58
Close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Close	TTU vs UCF 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	24–23	L	U59.5
Close	UCF vs CIN 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	13–19	L	U58
Close	TCU vs BAY 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	42–36	W	O66.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARK LWWLL	3-6	33%	1-2	2-2
LSU LWLLL	3-6	33%	2-3	2-2

Venue/role: ARK away, as underdog; LSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARK OUOOO	7-2	78%	2-7
LSU UUOOU	3-6	33%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 49% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARK	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
LSU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ARK 0–2 LSU LSU leads · 2 games since 2023 · LSU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 19 2024	LSU 34 @ Arkansas 10	LSU -2.5	LSU W
Sep 23 2023	Arkansas 31 @ LSU 34	LSU -17.5	ARK W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARK+8.7 →+9.0▲ 0.3#34

LSU+15.7 →+12.1▼ 3.6#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ARK

Longer bar = better

LSU

#10

Offense

◀ ARK better

#91

#129

Defense

LSU better ▶

#39

−0.8 #123

Turnovers

LSU better ▶

+0.3 #48

66 plays #69

Pace

◀ ARK faster

63 plays #117

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: ARK offense

	ARK off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	35.4 #21	19.0 #20	Even
Yards / play	7.30 #4	5.09 #38	ARK
PPA / play	+0.30 #8	+0.04 #42	ARK
Success rate	51% #5	40% #57	ARK

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: LSU offense

	LSU off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #98	33.3 #126	LSU
Yards / play	5.43 #90	6.25 #124	LSU
PPA / play	+0.10 #77	+0.28 #134	LSU
Success rate	41% #100	49% #133	LSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

ARK scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	7.6 #33	15.3 #1	22.9 #4	6.2 #63	6.3 #78	12.6 #72
LSU allowed	4.4 #47	5.8 #32	10.2 #35	5.0 #55	3.8 #13	8.8 #22

LSU scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	3.8 #119	8.7 #69	12.4 #92	5.8 #72	5.4 #97	11.2 #90
ARK allowed	8.1 #122	10.3 #117	18.4 #127	7.8 #120	7.1 #88	14.9 #118

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.