Eastern Michigan @ Ball State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2025)

Sat, Nov 15, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Ball State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F17 mphgusts 34DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Eastern Michigan

3-7 · Power #123

▲ winner

Final

Ball State

4-5 · Power #133

final

Closing spread

EMU -2.5

✓ EMU W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

EMU 25–23 BALL

✓ EMU (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenEMU -2.5

CloseEMU -2.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenEMU -2.5

no move

CloseEMU -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened EMU -2.5 · unchangedmodel EMU -2

model EMU -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (221 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenEMU -2.5

CloseEMU -2.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like EMU as a 2.5-point road favorite at BALL, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: EMU won 24–9; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 2.4; 51.2 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USF @ TEM 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	28–54	L	O49
Very close	MOST @ MTSU 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	22–20	L	U51.5
Very close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	20–23	L	U50
Very close	BUFF @ AKR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1	41–30	W	O48
Very close	NIU @ WMU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & spread	-0.5	24–21	W	U49
Very close	JXST @ UTEP 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-1.5	30–27	W	O46.5
Very close	USM @ ULM 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	20–10	W	U50
Very close	LIB @ UTEP 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-1.5	19–8	W	U46.5
Very close	NIU @ AKR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & spread	-4	55–14	W	O42.5
Very close	EMU @ AKR 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	21–25	L	U50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
EMU WWLWW	6-4	60%	2-3	1-1
BALL WLWLW	6-3	67%	4-0	3-3

Venue/role: EMU away, as favorite; BALL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
EMU OUOUU	5-5	50%	3-7
BALL UUOUU	3-6	33%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
EMU	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
BALL	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

EMU 1–0 BALL EMU leads · 1 game since 2023 · EMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Ball State 10 @ Eastern Michigan 24	EMU -2.5	EMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

EMU−11.0 →−14.6▼ 3.6#121

BALL−15.8 →−18.7▼ 2.9#131

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

EMU

Longer bar = better

BALL

#75

Offense

◀ EMU better

#131

#123

Defense

BALL better ▶

#91

+0.1 #67

Turnovers

◀ EMU better

−0.2 #93

66 plays #76

Pace

◀ EMU faster

59 plays #135

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When EMU has the ball

Even matchup

	EMU off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #88	27.9 #93	Even
Yards / play	5.58 #75	5.90 #101	EMU
PPA / play	+0.15 #55	+0.11 #79	EMU
Success rate	42% #82	43% #90	Even

When BALL has the ball

Even matchup

	BALL off	EMU def	Edge
Points / game	16.4 #131	31.7 #120	Even
Yards / play	4.55 #135	6.50 #131	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #122	+0.24 #127	Even
Success rate	34% #134	45% #112	EMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

EMU scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
EMU scored	5.3 #87	7.5 #87	12.8 #88	2.1 #135	8.9 #24	11.0 #93
BALL allowed	9.0 #130	5.8 #32	14.8 #90	6.1 #92	7.0 #82	13.1 #91

BALL scoring against the EMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	3.4 #125	3.9 #133	7.3 #133	4.0 #114	5.1 #104	9.1 #121
EMU allowed	8.4 #124	7.9 #82	16.3 #108	5.9 #85	8.8 #124	14.7 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.