Ball State @ Toledo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2025)

Sat, Nov 22, 2025, 2:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Toledo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff44°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Ball State

4-6 · Power #133

final

Final

Toledo

6-4 · Power #48

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -28.5

✓ TOL W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 8–37 TOL

✓ TOL (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -26.5

CloseTOL -28.5

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -26.5

2 → TOL

CloseTOL -28.5

2 pts toward Toledo

Total

Open47.5

▼ 2

Close45.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -26.5 · closed TOL -28.5 · moved 2 toward TOLmodel TOL -29.5

model TOL -29.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 27.5–29.5 since 2023: won 99%, covered 57% (68 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (235 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -26.5

CloseTOL -28.5

Total47.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 28.5-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 38–9; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 97%

Favorite covered

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 27.6 against an average line of 27.1; 51.4 points a game (usually 56). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FRES vs KENT 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & season form	-27.5	53–10	W	O47.5
Close	TOL vs KENT 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-25.5	45–10	W	O48.5
Close	FLA vs CLT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-28	22–7	L	U48.5
Close	FRES vs NEV 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-24.5	27–9	L	U51.5
Close	UK vs AKR 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar total & team ratings	-25.25	35–3	W	U48.5
Close	SJSU vs CSU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-24	28–16	L	U44.5
Close	MIZ vs NMSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-29	45–14	W	O46.5
Close	MSST vs BGSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-31	45–14	P	O53
Close	IOWA vs WMU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread	-28.5	41–10	W	O43.25
Close	USF vs CLT 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-28	54–26	P	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL LWLWL	6-4	60%	2-3	3-4
TOL LWLWW	7-3	70%	5-0	6-3

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; TOL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL UOUUU	3-7	30%	4-6
TOL OOUOU	5-5	50%	6-4

Went over in Q4. Of 435 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALL	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
TOL	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BALL 0–1 TOL TOL leads · 1 game since 2023 · TOL has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Toledo 13 @ Ball State 6	TOL -17.5	BALL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−15.8 →−19.6▼ 3.8#132

TOL−4.5 →+4.7▲ 9.2#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

BALL

Longer bar = better

TOL

#132

Offense

TOL better ▶

#46

#90

Defense

TOL better ▶

−0.1 #85

Turnovers

TOL better ▶

+0.5 #34

59 plays #134

Pace

TOL faster ▶

69 plays #46

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	BALL off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	15.7 #134	13.4 #5	TOL
Yards / play	4.47 #135	3.76 #1	TOL
PPA / play	−0.02 #126	−0.14 #3	TOL
Success rate	34% #134	33% #4	TOL

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #41	27.5 #90	TOL
Yards / play	6.20 #34	5.86 #99	TOL
PPA / play	+0.15 #54	+0.10 #75	TOL
Success rate	44% #56	44% #95	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	3.1 #127	3.8 #132	6.9 #133	3.9 #112	4.9 #114	8.8 #124
TOL allowed	2.7 #16	3.4 #5	6.1 #6	1.6 #1	5.7 #46	7.3 #11

TOL scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	6.6 #54	13.8 #2	20.4 #11	7.2 #40	4.4 #122	11.6 #86
BALL allowed	8.8 #130	6.2 #36	15.0 #96	5.5 #68	7.0 #89	12.5 #79

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.