Ball State @ Miami (OH): Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Miami (OH) · Conference game

Weather at kickoff29°F8 mphgusts 17Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Ball State

4-7 · Power #133

final

Final

Miami (OH)

6-5 · Power #91

▲ winner

Closing spread

M-OH -16.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 12–29 M-OH

✓ M-OH (88%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -17.5

CloseM-OH -16.5

Total41.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenM-OH -17.5

1 → BALL

CloseM-OH -16.5

1 pt toward Ball State

Total

Open41.5

▼ 1

Close40.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened M-OH -17.5 · closed M-OH -16.5 · moved 1 toward BALLmodel M-OH -17.5

model M-OH -17.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 48% (126 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (306 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -17.5

CloseM-OH -16.5

Total41.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 16.5-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 45–24; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 40.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.5 against an average line of 15.6; 46.5 points a game (usually 53). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	WYO vs HAW 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-13.5	42–9	W	O45
Very close	ARMY vs CLT 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-17.5	24–7	L	U45.5
Very close	NIU vs AKR 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-14	29–16	L	O43.5
Very close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & season form	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Very close	CONN vs MASS 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-15	27–10	W	U39.75
Very close	WYO vs UNM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-14	35–26	L	O41
Very close	CMU vs MASS 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-16.5	38–13	W	O46.5
Close	M-OH vs AKR 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-17	19–0	W	U37.5
Close	LT vs SHSU 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-16.5	55–14	W	O48
Close	TOL vs NIU 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-15.5	42–3	W	O42

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL WLWLL	6-5	55%	2-4	3-5
M-OH WWLLW	7-4	64%	3-2	6-0

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; M-OH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL OUUUO	4-7	36%	4-7
M-OH OOUUO	5-6	45%	6-5

Went over in Q2. Of 175 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–44.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALL	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
M-OH	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BALL 0–2 M-OH M-OH leads · 2 games since 2023 · M-OH has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 5 2024	Miami (OH) 27 @ Ball State 21	M-OH -12.5	BALL W
Nov 25 2023	Miami (OH) 17 @ Ball State 15	M-OH -3.5	BALL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−15.8 →−19.3▼ 3.5#132

M-OH−2.8 →−5.6▼ 2.8#89

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

BALL

Longer bar = better

M-OH

#134

Offense

M-OH better ▶

#93

#94

Defense

M-OH better ▶

#42

−0.2 #90

Turnovers

M-OH better ▶

+0.6 #21

61 plays #128

Pace

Even

62 plays #121

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	BALL off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	15.1 #134	21.7 #43	M-OH
Yards / play	4.44 #135	4.89 #25	M-OH
PPA / play	−0.05 #128	+0.03 #41	M-OH
Success rate	33% #137	41% #57	M-OH

When M-OH has the ball

Even matchup

	M-OH off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #90	28.5 #94	Even
Yards / play	5.56 #77	5.95 #106	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.06 #101	+0.09 #74	BALL
Success rate	40% #105	44% #100	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	2.8 #128	3.7 #134	6.5 #134	3.5 #121	5.0 #112	8.5 #125
M-OH allowed	2.5 #5	7.2 #62	9.6 #25	5.3 #62	6.8 #76	12.1 #66

M-OH scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	3.5 #124	6.9 #94	10.4 #113	8.0 #24	6.0 #85	14.0 #45
BALL allowed	9.3 #130	6.5 #47	15.8 #104	5.6 #71	7.0 #87	12.6 #80

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.