Navy @ Memphis: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Thu, Nov 27, 2025, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Memphis · Conference game

Weather at kickoff42°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Navy

8-2 · Power #64

▲ winner

Final

Memphis

8-3 · Power #61

final

Closing spread

MEM -4

✓ NAVY W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

NAVY 27–31 MEM

✗ MEM (64%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMEM -4.5

CloseMEM -4

Total58.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMEM -4.5

0.5 → NAVY

CloseMEM -4

0.5 pts toward Navy

Total

Open58.5

▼ 1

Close57.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MEM -4.5 · closed MEM -4 · moved 0.5 toward NAVYmodel MEM -8.5

model MEM -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 50% (204 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMEM -4.5

CloseMEM -4

Total58.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 4-point home favorite against NAVY, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NAVY won 28–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 57.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.5 against an average line of 3.5; 49.1 points a game (usually 53). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ISU vs KU 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	38–14	W	U55.5
Very close	FRES vs BOIS 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	37–30	W	O54.5
Very close	ARIZ vs KU 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	24–20	L	U56.5
Very close	MRSH vs CCU 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	13–24	L	U54
Very close	TXST vs UL 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-4	17–23	L	U60.5
Very close	JMU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	33–35	L	O52
Very close	UNC vs NCSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & total	-2	30–35	L	O54.5
Very close	UCF vs CIN 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	13–19	L	U58
Very close	PITT vs CAL 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	17–15	L	U57.5
Very close	PITT vs SYR 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	41–13	W	U62.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAVY LLLLW	3-7	30%	1-3	1-2
MEM LWWLL	8-3	73%	4-1	6-2

Venue/role: NAVY away, as underdog; MEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY OOUOO	8-2	80%	8-2
MEM UOOOO	6-5	55%	8-3

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 50% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVY	8-2 80%	3-7 30%	8-2 80%
MEM	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NAVY 1–1 MEM Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · NAVY has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 21 2024	Memphis 44 @ Navy 56	MEM -8.5	NAVY W
Sep 14 2023	Navy 24 @ Memphis 28	MEM -12.5	NAVY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NAVY+1.2 →−0.8▼ 2.0#71

MEM+2.2 →+4.1▲ 1.9#52

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

NAVY

Longer bar = better

MEM

#15

Offense

Even

#21

#108

Defense

MEM better ▶

#67

+0.2 #53

Turnovers

MEM better ▶

+0.7 #20

63 plays #118

Pace

MEM faster ▶

68 plays #50

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: NAVY offense

	NAVY off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #33	22.0 #48	Even
Yards / play	7.16 #8	5.57 #69	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.30 #8	+0.13 #85	NAVY
Success rate	50% #11	41% #67	NAVY

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	36.2 #17	27.9 #93	MEM
Yards / play	6.36 #28	6.24 #119	MEM
PPA / play	+0.27 #13	+0.18 #113	MEM
Success rate	47% #27	44% #107	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

NAVY scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	7.3 #36	10.3 #34	17.6 #32	5.9 #71	9.4 #19	15.3 #36
MEM allowed	5.9 #81	9.5 #107	15.5 #102	3.4 #22	3.2 #6	6.5 #7

MEM scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	8.2 #21	11.9 #13	20.1 #13	6.4 #53	9.7 #13	16.1 #25
NAVY allowed	6.9 #102	6.6 #53	13.5 #82	5.9 #79	8.5 #119	14.4 #107

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.