Rice @ South Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2025)

Sat, Nov 29, 2025, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at South Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F11 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Rice

5-6 · Power #126

final

Final

South Florida

8-3 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

USF -28.5

✓ USF W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

RICE 11–40 USF

✓ USF (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -26.5

CloseUSF -28.5

Total59.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSF -26.5

2 → USF

CloseUSF -28.5

2 pts toward South Florida

Total

Open59.5

▼ 2

Close57.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USF -26.5 · closed USF -28.5 · moved 2 toward USFmodel USF -30

model USF -30

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 27.5–29.5 since 2023: won 99%, covered 57% (70 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (251 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -26.5

CloseUSF -28.5

Total59.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USF as a 28.5-point home favorite against RICE, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: USF won 52–3; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 55 points stayed under 57.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 97%

Favorite covered

5 of 863%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 32.3 against an average line of 27.3; 61.3 points a game (usually 55.9). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BOIS vs SDSU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-24.5	56–24	W	O55.5
Close	TXST vs USM 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-27.5	58–3	W	O56.5
Close	USF vs CLT 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-28	54–26	P	O54.5
Close	IU vs PUR 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-28.5	66–0	W	O56.5
Close	MSST vs BGSU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-31	45–14	P	O53
Close	VAN vs BALL 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-27.5	24–14	L	U57.5
Close	CIN vs USF 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-27	28–24	L	U58.5
Close	SMU vs CLT 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-23.5	34–16	L	U53.5
Close	WASH vs COLO 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-30.5	54–7	W	O60.5
Close	FSU vs UL 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-25	49–17	W	O52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2022 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RICE LWLWL	5-6	45%	3-1	3-4
USF WLWLW	7-4	64%	4-1	4-3

Venue/role: RICE away, as underdog; USF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RICE OOOUO	7-4	64%	5-6
USF UOOOU	7-4	64%	8-3

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 50% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RICE	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
USF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

RICE 1–1 USF Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · RICE has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	South Florida 28 @ Rice 35	USF -5.5	RICE W
Sep 23 2023	Rice 29 @ South Florida 42	RICE -2.5	USF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RICE−9.0 →−14.4▼ 5.4#122

USF−3.9 →+10.2▲ 14.1#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

RICE

Longer bar = better

USF

#113

Offense

USF better ▶

#12

#94

Defense

USF better ▶

#44

−0.1 #81

Turnovers

USF better ▶

+0.7 #19

68 plays #53

Pace

Even

69 plays #42

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RICE has the ball

Advantage: USF defense

	RICE off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	21.4 #115	25.2 #74	USF
Yards / play	4.65 #132	5.21 #42	USF
PPA / play	+0.06 #97	+0.01 #28	USF
Success rate	39% #107	39% #31	USF

When USF has the ball

Advantage: USF offense

	USF off	RICE def	Edge
Points / game	42.2 #4	30.5 #111	USF
Yards / play	7.20 #5	6.18 #118	USF
PPA / play	+0.26 #15	+0.18 #112	USF
Success rate	47% #25	39% #34	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 136 FBS teams

RICE scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RICE scored	4.4 #106	6.9 #96	11.3 #103	3.7 #115	5.2 #110	8.9 #123
USF allowed	6.8 #98	6.2 #39	13.0 #74	2.7 #11	9.5 #129	12.2 #65

USF scoring against the RICE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	7.7 #30	11.6 #16	19.4 #16	12.5 #2	10.4 #7	22.8 #1
RICE allowed	8.2 #123	9.5 #110	17.7 #121	6.4 #98	5.5 #41	11.8 #59

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.